[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230612
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Aug 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Harold is centered near 27.4N 100.2W at
23/0300 UTC or 40 nm WSW of Laredo Texas, and moving WNW at 16
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the Texas Panhandle,
and across the northern part of Chihuahua and Coahuila States,
Mexico. Harold is expected to produce additional heavy rain for
southwestern Texas and far northern Mexico through Wednesday.
Isolated instances of flash flooding and landslides are possible.
Harold is going to continue moving WNW overnight and weaken into
a remnant low on Wed. Please read the latest Harold WPC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropstorms.shtml for more
information.

Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 16.4N 71.4W at 23/0300
UTC or 150 nm SW of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic and moving
N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas range
from 16 to 18 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted near and up to 110 NM south and east of the center.
Franklin will continue a general northward motion with little
change in intensity for the next couple of days. It is going to
cross over Hispaniola on Wed, then emerge over the southwestern
Atlantic waters Wed night. Anticipate torrential rain over the
central part of Hispaniola through Wed. Strong thunderstorms east
of Franklin will produce heavy showers over Puerto Rico through
Wed. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atlc for more details.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning:
A 1007 mb low pressure system (remnants of former Tropical Storm
Emily) is near 25N47W. Near-gale to gale E to SE winds and seas at
9 to 10 ft are found up to 130 nm north and northeast of the low
pressure center. Numerous moderate convection is flaring up north
and east of the center north of 24N between 42W and 49W. This
area will gradually shift NNW along with the low through Wed
evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. In
addition, environmental conditions are becoming more conducive
for gradual redevelopment and there is a medium chance of tropical
formation over the next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 33W from 22N southward through a 1009 mb
low pressure (AL92) centered at 17N33W, and moving west around 10
kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 21N
between 30W and 37W. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for gradual development late this week,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while it
moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central
Atlantic. There is a medium chance of tropical formation for the
next 2 to 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Mauritania-Senegal
border. then extends westward through aforementioned AL92 at
17N33W to 11N40W. An ITCZ continues from 11N40W through 11N50W to
east of Trinidad and Tobago at 11N58W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted south of the trough from 06N to 11N between
the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 23W. Similar conditions are
present up to 60 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
northeastward from central Costa Rica to the central Caribbean
Sea near 14N76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and near the
northwestern Colombia coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated upper-level low across the Florida Straits near
24N83W is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the east-central and southeastern Gulf.
Convergent southeasterly winds are causing similar conditions at
the west-central Gulf. A broad surface ridge extends southward
from a modest 1016 mb high near the Florida Panhandle to the
south- central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft
are present at the northeastern Gulf and up to 100 nm off the
Mexico coast, including the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to
strong easterly winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft are seen at the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds
and 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate easterly swell prevail for the rest
of the Gulf, including the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, winds and seas over the west-central Gulf will
gradually subside overnight. Conditions will improve in the
northwestern Gulf Wed as the high builds further west across the
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Franklin at the north-central basin.

Enhanced by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, convergent
easterly trades are generating widely scattered moderate
convection from the Gulf of Honduras eastward across the Cayman
Islands to south of the Windward Passage. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection the basin. Outside
the influence of Franklin, fresh to strong NE to SE winds and seas
of 8 to 14 ft are evident across the north-central basin. Fresh to
strong monsoonal SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist at the
southwestern basin north of Panama and northwestern Colombia.
Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen
at the eastern basin and near the Cayman Islands and Windward
Passage. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will move to near 17.6N
71.2W early Wed, inland over the Dominican Republic Wed, then
emerge off the northern coast of Hispaniola near 20.0N 70.6W Wed
evening. It should reach near 22N69W Thu evening, 23N67W Fri
evening, and strengthen to a hurricane near 25N67W Sat evening.
Conditions in the Caribbean will improve Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for Gale
Winds at the central Atlantic.

An upper-level trough near 29N64W is producing scattered moderate
convection north of 27N between 59W and 63W. A 1009 mb low
pressure (remnants of former Tropical Depression Gert) is east of
the northern Leeward Islands near 10N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 15N to 19N between 55W and 59W. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Wave sections at the
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the Gale Warning area, moderate to fresh with locally
strong E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found north of 25N
between 42W and 49W. Otherwise north of 18N, gentle to moderate
NNE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate mixed N and E
swell dominate between the northwest Africa coast and Georgia-
Florida coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 18N between
40W and the Lesser Antilles, light to gentle with locally moderate
trades and 3 to 4 ft seas exist. Farther east, light to gentle
monsoonal winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present from 07N to 18N
between the central Africa coast and 40W. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate southerly swell
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will emerge off the
northern coast of Hispaniola near 20.0N 70.6W Wed evening, reach
near 22N69W Thu evening and then 23N67W Fri evening. It is
expected to strengthen to a hurricane near 25N67W Sat evening and
move to near 29N68W Sun evening. A cold front is expected to move
across the waters east of northern Florida Wed afternoon through
Thu followed by fresh to strong NE winds and building seas.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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