[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222209
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Aug 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Harold is centered near 27.6N 99.3W at
22/2100 UTC or 10 nm E of Laredo Texas, moving WNW at 18 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are up to 11 ft.
Scattered moderate conveciton is noted north of 27N and west of
98W. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18
kt, and this motion should continue until it dissipates on
Wednesday. Harold is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across South
Texas through early Wednesday. Across Mexico, rainfall amounts
of 4 to 6 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches, are expected
across portions of northern Coahuila and northern Nuevo Leon
through Wednesday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are
expected.

Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 15.8N 71.4W at 22/2100
UTC or 180 nm SSW of Santo Domingo Dominican Republic, moving NW
at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are up to
18 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted within 180 NM of its center. A turn toward the north is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast by
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is
expected to approach the southern coast of Hispaniola tonight,
cross the island on Wednesday, and then emerge over the
southwestern Atlantic waters late Wednesday. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next couple of days while
Franklin moves near and across Hispaniola. Some strengthening is
possible late Thursday into Friday as Franklin moves farther
northeast over the southwestern Atlantic waters. Franklin is
expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with
isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches across portions of
Hispaniola through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches,
with storm total maxima of 6 inches, are expected across Puerto
Rico and Vieques into Thursday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Franklin and Harold NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 31W extending from 05N-21N
with a 1008 mb low centered at 17N31W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 11N-19N between 30W-40W. Environmental
conditions now appear only marginally conducive for gradual
development of this system - also known as AL92, but a tropical
depression could still form later this week or over the weekend
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the
eastern and central Atlantic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Senegal and Mauritania near 16N16W, to the AL92 1008 mb low
pressure center at 17N31W, to 13N43W. The ITCZ continues from
13N43W to 13N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
11N-19N between 30W-40W and from 10N-13N east of 21W.

The E Pacific monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica at 10N83W to
13N77W in the Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted south of 14N and west of 78W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The effects of Tropical Depression HAROLD are in the NW Gulf of
Mexico. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details.
Elsewhere, fresh NE winds cover the Straits of Florida with winds
moderate or lighter over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas away
from Harold are 4-6 over the Straits of Florida and the central
Gulf, with 2-4 ft in the NE Gulf of SW Gulf.

For the forecast, Harold will move farther inland to 28.7N
101.9W Wed morning and dissipate Wed afternoon. Numerous showers
and thunderstorms with strong gusty winds in the wake of Harold
will continue to move toward the NW Gulf through Wed. Conditions
will gradually improve in the NW Gulf beginning Wed as high
pressure builds in over the area from the E.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The effects of Tropical Storm FRANKLIN are in the NW Gulf of
Mexico. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details.
Elsewhere, the trades are moderate to fresh, except for moderate
to fresh SW winds in the SW Caribbean and just north of Colombia.
Seas away from Franklin are 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, Franklin will move to near 17.0N 71.3W late
tonight, inland the Dominican Republic near 19.1N 70.9W Wed
afternoon, then back over water near 20.9N 70.3W late Wed night
with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, and begin to
gradually intensify as it moves farther away from the Caribbean
through the end of the week. Gert is now a post-tropical low near
17N60W with pressure of 1008 mb. The low will continue to weaken
as it moves to near 19N60W early Wed and drift slightly
southeastward Thu, dissipating by early Thu evening. Conditions
in the Caribbean will improve Wed night into early Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two weak lows are present: Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily at 24N47W
with 1011 mb central pressure and Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert at
18N60W with 1009 mb central pressure. PTC Emily has fresh to
strong winds, seas 8-9 ft, and scattered moderate convection
within 180 NM of its center in the NE semicircle. PTC Gert only
has moderate winds, though it still has scattered moderate
convection within 90 NM of its center in the E semicircle.
Elsewehre, winds are moderate or lighter across the basin with
seas 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin is expected to move
back over water near 20.9N 70.3W late Wed night with maximum
sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, and begin to gradually
intensify as it moves to near 22.0N 69.3W Thu afternoon, to near
22.5N 68.2W late Thu night night with maximum sustained winds 45
kt gusts 55 kt, to near 22.9N 67.3W Fri afternoon with maximum
sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 24.3N 66.7W Sat
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt and
reach hurricane strength near 27.6N 67.7W Sun afternoon with
maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. The remnant low of
former tropical cyclone Gert is expected to reach near 19N60W by
early Wed, with little or no impacts on winds and seas. A cold
front is expected to move across the waters E of northern Florida
Wed through Thu followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and
building seas.

$$
Landsea
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