[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222149
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Aug 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Harold is centered near 27.6N 99.3W at
22/2100 UTC or 10 nm E of Laredo Texas, moving WNW at 18 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
conveciton is noted north of 27N and west of 98W. The depression
is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 kt, and this motion
should continue until it dissipates on Wednesday. Harold is
expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across South Texas through
early Wednesday. Across Mexico, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6
inches, with local amounts of 10 inches, are expected across
portions of northern Coahuila and northern Nuevo Leon through
Wednesday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are expected.

Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 15.8N 71.4W at 22/2100
UTC or 180 nm SSW of Santo Domingo Dominican Republic, moving NW
at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 NM of
its center. A turn toward the north is expected tonight,
followed by a turn toward the northeast by Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach
the southern coast of Hispaniola tonight, cross the island on
Wednesday, and then emerge over the southwestern Atlantic waters
late Wednesday. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next couple of days while Franklin moves near and across
Hispaniola. Some strengthening is possible late Thursday into
Friday as Franklin moves farther northeast over the southwestern
Atlantic waters. Franklin is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches
across portions of Hispaniola through Wednesday. Rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches, with storm total maxima of 6 inches, are
expected across Puerto Rico and Vieques into Thursday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Franklin and Harold NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 31W extending from 05N-21N
with a 1008 mb low centered at 17N31W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 11N-19N between 30W-40W. Environmental
conditions now appear only marginally conducive for gradual
development of this system - also known as AL92, but a tropical
depression could still form later this week or over the weekend
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the
eastern and central Atlantic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Senegal and Mauritania near 16N16W, to the AL92 1008 mb low
pressure center at 17N31W, to 13N43W. The ITCZ continues from
13N43W to 13N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
11N-19N between 30W-40W and from 10N-13N east of 21W.

The E Pacific monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica at 10N83W to
13N77W in the Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted south of 14N and west of 78W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The effects of Tropical Storm HAROLD are in the westernmost
parts of the Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES
section, for details.

Elsewhere,


For the forecast, Harold will move farther inland to 28.7N
101.9W Wed morning and dissipate Wed afternoon. Numerous showers
and thunderstorms with strong gusty winds in the wake of Harold
will continue to move toward the NW Gulf through Wed. Conditions
will gradually improve in the NW Gulf beginning Wed as high
pressure builds in over the area from the E.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two weak lows are present: Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily at 24N47W
with 1011 mb central pressure and Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert at
18N60W with 1009 mb central pressure. PTC Emily has scattered
moderate convection within 180 NM of its center in the NE
semicircle, while PTC has scattered moderate convection within 90
NM of its center in the E semicircle.


$$
Landsea
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