[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Aug 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 22.2N 69.9W at 24/1500
UTC or 80 nm ENE of Grand Turk Island, moving NE at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Franklin appears a little
better organized this morning, with a recent convective burst
near the center. The morning Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance
mission into Franklin indicates the storm has intensified a
bit. On the forecast track, a northeastward to north-
northeastward motion is anticipated over the next day or so,
followed by a sharp turn to the north in a couple of days. Slow
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Franklin
could become a hurricane by Saturday. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1008 mb low pressure system
(remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is located near
30.2N48.4W moving N. Near-gale to gale SE to S winds and 8 to 11
ft seas are found within 120 nm E of the center. Numerous moderate
convection is noted from 25N to 31N between 45W and 49W. Gales
will continue on the east side of the center until after the
system moves north of 31N later today. Recently received
satellite wind data suggests that the system has lost organization
from yesterday, but a tropical depression or storm could still
form as it moves northward over the subtropical central Atlantic.
By this weekend, the system is expected to merge with a frontal
boundary north of the Gulf Stream. This system has a medium
formation chance in the next 48 hours. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is collocated with a 1008 mb low
pressure system (AL92) at 18N 40W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is seen from 14N to 20N between 38W and 44W.
Fresh winds are in the NE semicircle of the low along with seas 5
to 7 ft. While environmental conditions are marginal for
additional development, they could become more conducive in a few
days. A tropical depression could form by early next week while
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
central subtropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Senegal near 13N18W to 06N36W. The ITCZ continues from 06N36W to
07N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the Monsoon
Trough between 16W and 34W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A large elongated upper-level low near the NE Yucatan Peninsula
is triggering widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the eastern Gulf including the Florida Keys as well as the Bay of
Campeche. Another area of scattered moderate convection is
depicted in the north-central Gulf. Otherwise, a 1016 mb high
over the NW Gulf is leading to drier weather there. High pressure
ridging extending from that high covers the northern Gulf, leading
to light to moderate winds and 1 to 3 ft seas. Over the southern
Gulf, moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the basin
through the upcoming weekend, providing gentle to moderate winds.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form late this
weekend near the Yucatan Channel. Some gradual development is
possible early next week as it moves slowly N or NNE across the
eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southeastern quadrant of a large elongated upper-level low
over the Yucatan Peninsula is triggering isolated showers and
thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean Sea. In addition, scattered
thunderstorms are seen in the Windward Passage. Winds and seas
over the north central Caribbean have now diminished since
Franklin is located well north of Hispaniola and continues to
track northward. Light to moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas
prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin located over the
Atlantic, continues to pull northward, well north of the Dominican
Republic. Winds and seas have improved now over the Caribbean Sea
and will remain fairly quiet through Sat. Looking ahead, an area
of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this
system is possible over the weekend and early next week, and a
tropical depression could form while it moves slowly northward
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Franklin north of Hispaniola, and a Gale Warning
associated with the remnants of Emily over the central subtropical
Atlantic. Please read the TROPICAL WAVES and the MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ sections for details on Invest AL92 located over the
central Tropical Atlantic and convection in the tropical Atlantic.

A 1010 mb low pressure near 17.1N 58.2W is the remnant low of
Gert. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 14N to 17N
between 57W and 60W.

A cold front extends westward from a 1010 mb low near 30N73W to
28N76.5W to northeast FL. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 5
to 8 ft seas are depicted north of the front.

Outside of the areas near Franklin, the remnants of Emily, the
cold front east of Florida, and Invest AL92, winds are light to
moderate and seas are 3 to 6 ft across the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Franklin is near 22.2N
69.9W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving northeast at 6 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 998 mb. Franklin will move to 22.6N 68.9W this
evening, 23.0N 67.7W Fri morning, 23.4N 66.9W Fri evening,
strengthen to a hurricane near 23.9N 66.4W Sat morning, 25.0N
66.6W Sat evening, and 26.6N 67.3W Sun morning. Franklin will
change little in intensity as it moves to the 30.0N 68.5W early
Mon. A cold front extending from 30N73W to 28N77W to Daytona
Beach, FL will reach from near 31N66W to West Palm Beach, FL this
evening before stalling and gradually weakening. Fresh to locally
strong northeast winds and building seas will continue north of
the front through this evening.

$$
KRV
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net