[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Aug 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Franklin, at 21/1500 UTC, is near
15.0N 70.1W. FRANKLIN is about 210 nm/390 km to the south of
Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. FRANKLIN is moving
toward the west, or 270 degrees, 05 knots. The estimated
 minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots.
Tropical storm-force winds are: within 50 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
40 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea
heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 75 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant; within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant;
and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant.
The maximum sea heights that are near the center are 19 feet.
Precipitation: numerous strong is from 12N to 17N between 64W
and 73W. Other rain and clouds cover the Caribbean Sea between
the Caribbean Sea islands and 76W. Heavy rainfall is expected
for Hispaniola and for Puerto Rico. The hazards that will be
affecting land areas are: rainfall, wind, and storm surge.

Please, refer to the following website,
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

The center of Tropical Storm Gert is near 16.9N 57.0W, at
21/1500 UTC. GERT is moving toward the west, or 280 degrees,
7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts
to 45 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 60 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The wind speeds will range from 20 knots to
33 knots, and the sea heights will range from 8 feet
to 10 feet, within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within
150 nm of the center in the E quadrant.

Please, refer to the following website,
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily, at 21/1500 UTC,
is near 21.1N 41.9W. EMILY is moving toward the west-
northwest, or 290 degrees, 08 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Expect that
the wind speeds will range from 20 knots to 30 knots,
within 240 nm N semicircle, and within 60 nm S semicircle.
The radius of the sea heights that are 12 feet or greater
is: within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant;
within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm
of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 150 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within a 360 nm radius of the center.

Please, refer to the following website,
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE is near
25.0N 89.9W. This weather system is moving toward the
west, or 275 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. The center is
about 416 nm/770 km to the ESE of Port Mansfield in Texas.
Expect winds to range from 20 knots to 25 knots, and the
sea heights to range from 8 feet to 10 feet, within
180 nm of the center in the N semicircle. The environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for the development of
this system. It is likely for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form, before it reaches the western Gulf
of Mexico coastline on Tuesday. Anyone who has interests in
southern Texas and northern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. It is likely that tropical storm
watches or warnings may be issued later today. The chance
of a tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours
is high. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong covers much of the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico, and it covers the southern two-thirds of
the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.

Please, refer to the following website,
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

...INVEST AL92 IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is along 26W/27W. A 1009 mb low pressure
center is along the tropical near 15N. Showers and
thunderstorms in the Cabo Verde Islands and in parts of the
tropical eastern Atlantic Ocean are associated with this
weather feature. The environmental conditions appear to be
generally conducive for gradual development of this system.
It is likely that a tropical depression may form later this
week, while the weather system moves west-northwestward
through the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of
formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours
is medium.

Please, refer to the following website,
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 21N southward, moving westward
10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 22N southward from
90W westward.

Please, refer to the following website,
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to the AL92 1009 mb low pressure
center, to 17N35W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 25N southward from 60W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is in the Gulf of Mexico.
Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is near 25.0N 89.9W at 11 AM
EDT, and is moving west at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25
kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1008
mb. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move to near 25.5N 92.8W
this evening, near 26.6N 96.8W Tue morning with maximum sustained
winds 40 kt with gusts 50 kt, then become a remnant low inland
near 27.8N 100.1W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. Expect
numerous showers and thunderstorms with strong gusty winds well
in
advance of this system. Conditions will gradually improve in the
wake of Potential Cyclone Nine as high pressure builds in over
the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Franklin is in the Caribbean Sea.
Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, in
Puerto Rico through the middle of the week. Rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher amounts
up to 15 inches, will be possible in parts of Hispaniola.
Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details.

The monsoon trough is along 10N76W, through Costa Rica,
and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is from 14N southward from 75W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, according to the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 21/1200 UTC,
are: 0.48 in Guadeloupe; 0.41 in Nassau in the Bahamas:
0.22 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.18 in Curacao; and
0.13 in St.Thomas in the Virgin Islands.

Tropical Storm Franklin is over the Caribbean Sea near
15.0N 70.1W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 5 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Franklin will move to near 15.2N
70.5W this evening, to near 15.7N 71.0W Tue morning with maximum
sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 17.3N 70.9W Tue
evening
with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, move inland the
Dominican Republic near 19.2N 70.6W Wed morning with maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, then move back over water to
near 21.2N 69.9W Wed evening. Franklin is forecast to strengthen
as it reaches near 22.8N 68.4W Thu morning with maximum
sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt and strengthen to a hurricane
over near 24.4N 65.2W early Fri with maximum sustained winds 65
kt gusts 80 Kt. Tropical Storm Gert is near 16.9N 57.0W at 11 AM
EDT, and is moving west at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006
mb. Gert will weaken to a remnant low near 17.2N 58.0W this
evening, move to 17.8N 59.1W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue
evening. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse off Hispaniola
and the Windward Passage at night and into the mornings through
Tue. Rough to very rough seas can be expected through Wed in the
eastern and central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about Tropical Storm Gert, Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily,
and AL92 with a 26W/27W tropical wave and a 1009 mb low
pressure center that is along the wave near 15N.

A broad subtropical ridge covers the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds, and sea heights that range
from 4 feet to 7 feet, are from 65W westward. Strong winds
have been at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Moderate
or slower winds, and more sea heights, are elsewhere.

Tropical Storm Franklin is over the Caribbean Sea near
15.0N 70.1W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 5 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Franklin will move to near 15.2N
70.5W this evening, to near 15.7N 71.0W Tue morning with maximum
sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 17.3N 70.9W Tue
evening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, move
inland the Dominican Republic near 19.2N 70.6W Wed morning with
maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, then move back over
water to near 21.2N 69.9W Wed evening. Franklin is forecast to
strengthen as it reaches near 22.8N 68.4W Thu morning with
maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt and strengthen to a
hurricane over near 24.4N 65.2W early Fri with maximum sustained
winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Tropical Storm Gert is near 16.9N 57.0W
at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 7 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Gert will weaken to a remnant low near
17.2N 58.0W this evening, move to 17.8N 59.1W Tue morning, and
dissipate Tue evening. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse
off Hispaniola and the Windward Passage at night and into the
mornings through Tue.

$$
mt/ja
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