[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Aug 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 15.0N 69.2W at 21/0900
UTC or 210 nm S of Santo Domingo Dominican Republic, moving W at
10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is observed from 12N to 18N and
between 62W and 70W. Maximum seas near the center are 17 ft.
Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto
Rico through the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches, will be
possible across portions of Hispaniola. These rains are likely to
cause flash flooding across portions of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is
forecast to reach the southern coast of Hispaniola late Tuesday or
Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Emily is centered near 20.7N 41.1W at 21/0900 UTC
or 1010 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is displaced well north of the center.
Highest wave heights are 18 ft just north of the center.

Tropical Storm Gert is centered near 16.7N 56.4W at 21/0900 UTC
or 400 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The tropical storm is
highly sheared with the deep convection located over the eastern
quadrant. Seas near the center are 11 ft. Gert will weaken to a
remnant low near 17.0N 57.6W this afternoon, move to 17.6N 59.0W
Tue morning, and dissipate Tue afternoon.

Invest 91L is located along 87W in the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong
easterly winds are evident on recent scatterometer satellite data
in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this
system while it moves westward at about 15 to 20 kt across the
central Gulf of Mexico. A tropical depression or storm is likely
to form while it approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline
by Tuesday. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. Tropical storm watches or warnings
may be necessary on Monday for portions of the southern Texas and
northern Mexico coastlines. The chance of tropical development is
high in the next 48 hours.

Invest 92L is associated with a tropical wave located near the
Cabo Verde Islands. A 1008 mb low pressure is noted along the wave
near 15N26W. Scattered moderate convection prevail from 15N to
19N from 20W to 29W. Seas in this area range between 6-8 ft.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later
this week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic. The chance of tropical development is medium
in the next 48 hours.

Please, refer to the following website, www.hurricanes.gov, for
more information and forecasts on all these systems.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 91W, south of 21N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is helping to enhance the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the EPAC
waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues
southwestward to Invest 92L near 15N26W and to 17N35W. No other
convection is present aside from the convection discussed in
association with Invest 92L.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest 91L.

Aside from Invest 91L, plenty of tropical moisture and divergence
aloft support isolated to scattered moderate convection across the
central and western Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the
ridge west of Bermuda and Invest 91L in the eastern Gulf sustain
moderate to fresh easterly winds east of 90L. Seas in these waters
are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, slight to gentle winds and 1-4 ft seas
prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds prevail over the eastern
Gulf associated with Invest 91L. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for development of this system while it moves westward
at about 15 to 20 kt across the central Gulf of Mexico. A tropical
depression or storm is likely to form while it approaches the
western Gulf of Mexico coastline by Tuesday. This system has a
high chance of development in 48 hours and 7 days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Franklin.

Fresh to strong trade winds across the periphery of Franklin are N
of 12N and between 66W and 73W. Seas in the waters described are
7-10 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted in
the Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will move to 15.0N 70.4W
this afternoon, 15.3N 71.1W Tue morning, 16.7N 71.2W Tue afternoon,
inland to 18.8N 70.9W Wed morning, 20.9N 70.2W Wed afternoon, and
22.5N 69.0W Thu morning. Franklin will change little in intensity
as it moves to 24.5N 66.0W by early Fri. Rough to very rough seas
can be expected through Wed in the eastern and central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on
Tropical Storms Emily and Gert.

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the
tropics. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are found west of 65W,
along with seas of 4-7 ft. However, strong winds are noted at the
entrance of the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will move to 15.0N
70.0W Mon morning, 15.3N 71.0W Mon evening, 16.2N 71.5W Tue
morning, inland to 18.1N 71.4W Tue evening, 20.0N 70.9W Wed
morning, and 21.9N 69.9W Wed evening. Franklin will change little
in intensity as it moves to 24.3N 67.0W late Thu. Tropical Storm
Gert will weaken to a remnant low near 17.0N 57.6W this afternoon,
move to 17.6N 59.0W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue afternoon.
Fresh to strong tradewinds will pulse off Hispaniola and the
Windward Passage each evening through Tue night.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net