[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Aug 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 14.3N 70.1W at 21/2100
UTC or 250 nm S of Santo Domingo Dominican Republic, moving W at
4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are
18 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is in the
eastern and central Caribbean between 62W and 74W. On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is forecast to reach the
southern coast of Hispaniola by early on Wednesday. Some
strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches Hispaniola.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Depression Gert is centered near 17.1N 57.5W at 21/2100
UTC or 330 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 6
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are 9
ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 15N to 18N
between 54W and 56W, and within 105 nm NW quadrant of center. Gert
or its remnants should turn northwestward overnight or tomorrow.
Gert could dissipate at any time. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Gert
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 25.2N 91.6W at 21/2100
UTC or 330 nm ESE of Port Mansfield Texas, moving W at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 10 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is N of 21N and W of 87W. A fast
motion to the west is expected to continue, and the system is
forecast to move inland over south Texas by midday Tuesday.
Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a
tropical storm before it reaches the Texas coast. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
the latest Nine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A tropical wave is just west of the Cape Verde Islands with axis
near 27W and with associated low pressure of 1009 mb near 15N27W.
This broad area of low pressure also known as AL92 is generating
showers and thunderstorms over portions of the tropical eastern
Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week while it moves west-northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation within the next 2 days and a high
chance through 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The northern axis of a tropical wave is moving through the central
Bay of Campeche near 94W and is generating scattered showers in
that region. For further information on the wave, read the East
Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to the AL92 1009 mb low pressure
center, to 17N37W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to
12N between 13W and 18W. Widely scattered showers are from 11N to
21N between 23W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Nine is in the Gulf of Mexico. Please, read
the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details.

Tropical Depression Nine is near 25.2N 91.6W at 5 PM EDT, and is
moving west at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
Nine will strengthen to a tropical storm near 25.8N 94.9W Tue
morning, move inland to 26.8N 98.4W Tue afternoon, weaken to a
remnant low near 28.1N 101.8W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed
afternoon.

Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms with strong gusty winds
well in advance of this system. Conditions will gradually improve
in the wake of Nine as high pressure builds in over the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Franklin is in the Caribbean Sea.
Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, in
Puerto Rico through the middle of the week. Rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher amounts
up to 15 inches, will be possible in parts of Hispaniola.
Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details.

Tropical Storm Franklin is near 14.3N 70.1W at 5 PM EDT, and is
moving west at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb.
Franklin will move to 14.3N 70.9W Tue morning, 15.3N 71.3W Tue
afternoon, 17.2N 71.2W Wed morning, inland to 19.1N 70.8W Wed
afternoon, 20.6N 70.3W Thu morning, and 22.2N 68.7W Thu
afternoon. Franklin will change little in intensity as it moves
near 23.6N 66.0W Fri afternoon.

Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse off Hispaniola and the
Windward Passage at night and into the mornings through Tue. Rough
to very rough seas can be expected through Wed in the eastern and
central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about Tropical Depression Gert, Tropical Storm Franklin and Invest
AL92.

A broad subtropical ridge covers the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds, and sea heights that range
from 4 feet to 7 feet, are from 65W westward. Strong winds prevail
across the Windward Passage. Moderate or slower winds, and slight
sea heights, are elsewhere.

Tropical Storm Franklin is near 14.3N 70.1W at 5 PM EDT, and is
moving west at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts
to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Franklin
will move to 14.3N 70.9W Tue morning, 15.3N 71.3W Tue afternoon,
17.2N 71.2W Wed morning, inland to 19.1N 70.8W Wed afternoon,
20.6N 70.3W Thu morning, and 22.2N 68.7W Thu afternoon. Franklin
will change little in intensity as it moves near 23.6N 66.0W Fri
afternoon.

Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse off Hispaniola
and the Windward Passage at night and into the mornings through
Tue.

$$
Ramos
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