[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Aug 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W, from 16N
southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots.
Precipitation: any nearby precipitation also is close
to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W, from 15N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: any nearby precipitation also is close
to the monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 300 nm on either side of the tropical wave from
14N northward.

A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 95W/96W, from
22N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
This tropical wave is associated with a 1008 mb Pacific
Ocean low pressure center that is about 420 nm to the
south of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
300 nm to the east of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
NW Senegal, to 15N20W 12N30W 11N40W 12N45W 09N54W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N54W, to 08N57W, and to 09N61W
at the coast of Venezuela. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is: from 08N to 12N
between 34W and 42W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is elsewhere from 17N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section, for
details about the 95W/96W tropical wave.

A surface ridge extends from central Florida, into the
north central Gulf, toward the middle Texas Gulf coast.

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that broad
cyclonic wind flow with an inverted trough covers much
of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is in most of the areas of the 500 mb/700 mb cyclonic
wind flow.

The sea heights are reaching: 2 feet in the NW corner,
and from the west central Gulf into the SE corner
of the area; 1 foot in the NE sections of the area,
and from 2 feet to 3 feet elsewhere from 90W westward
in the SW corner of the area. Moderate SE winds are in
the SW corner of the area. Mostly gentle winds
anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere in the area.

A trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night
supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan. Elsewhere,
a ridge over the Gulf will support mostly gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through
Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section, for details
about the 75W tropical wave.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to
locally strong precipitation, cover the Caribbean Sea
from Cuba southwestward to El Salvador between Nicaragua
and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are
from eastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua, to Jamaica,
to 66W.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in
Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered strong is from 06N to 10N
between Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela to 76W in Colombia.

Near gale-force NE winds are in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Strong E winds are within 80 nm of the northern coast
of Hispaniola between 70W and 73W. Strong to near gale-
force NE winds are from 17N southward between 72W and 77W.
Fresh NE winds are elsewhere in the central one-third of
the area. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 70W eastward.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the NW corner of
the area. Moderate or slower winds are in the SW corner
of the area.

The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet from
Hispaniola and Jamaica southward between 64W and 81W.
The comparatively highest sea heights of 7 feet are
along 73W/74W in the coastal waters/offshore waters
of Colombia. The sea heights: range from 4 feet
elsewhere from 70W eastward; reach 4 feet from 20N
northward from 80W westward; reaching 3 feet off the
coast of SW Cuba; 3 feet for the coastal waters of
central Honduras; 2 feet for the eastern coastal
waters of Honduras: 3 feet off the coast of
SE Nicaragua.

Ridging over the western Atlantic will support fresh
to locally strong winds across mainly the south-central
Caribbean through mid week. Moderate winds and seas will
persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough curves along 28N75W, through the Bahamas,
to 21N78W in Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from Cuba to 26N between 73W and 80W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N northward from 70W eastward. A 1025 mb
high pressure center is near 35N42W.

Strong NE winds are from 14N to 23N between 55W and 60W,
and from 25N northward from 20W eastward. Fresh NE winds
are elsewhere within 240 nm to 420 nm on either side of
the line 29N21W 24N36W 22N48W 18N60W. Fresh to moderate
southerly winds are from the monsoon trough/ITCZ southward
from 43W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Sea heights that range
from 7 feet to 9 feet are from 60W eastward, with smaller
areas of ranges from 4 feet to 6 feet mixed into this
part of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from
2 feet to 5 feet from 60W westward.

A surface trough will move westward toward the Bahamas
into Tue. Expect moderate to fresh easterly winds south
of 24N following the trough. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse off Hispaniola during the late
afternoons and early evenings into Tue night.

$$
mt/al
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