[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150850
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Aug 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is over west Africa near 12W/13W and S
of 20N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 08N to 19N between 09W and 18W. The tropical wave is
forecast to move off the west coast of Africa tonight or early
Wednesday. Some slow development of this system is possible late
this week or over the weekend while it moves generally west-
northwestward or northwestward across the eastern Atlantic.
Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development by early next week. There is currently a low chance
for tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 30W, from 16N
southward, moving westward at around 10 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 17N between 27W and 34W.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 54W, from 15N
southward, moving westward around 15 knots to 20 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 54W and 60W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 77W, from 20N
southward, moving westward at 15 knots to 20 knots. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted near the wave
axis S of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes across the coast of Africa near 16N16W
to 11N35W to 11N45W to 09N53W. The ITCZ extends from 09N54W to
09N61W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N to 12N between 33W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, expect for a
surface trough west of the Yucatan Peninsula. A locally tighter
pressure gradient between the trough and ridge is supporting
moderate to fresh winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate
winds are found elsewhere S of 24N, with light to gentle winds N
of 24N in the vicinity of the ridge. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range
west of the Yucatan Peninsula and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula
each night supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan.
Elsewhere, a ridge over the Gulf will support mostly gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean
with fresh winds elsewhere E of 75W. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail W of 75W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the south
central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, seas
are in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, ridging over the western Atlantic will support
fresh to locally strong winds across mainly the south-central
Caribbean through mid week. Moderate winds and seas will persist
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is moving westward across the northern Bahamas.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 60 nm
east of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds prevail from 18N to
24N between 40W and 75W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere
across the discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range N of
16N and E of 60W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere E of 60W. Seas of 5-7 ft
are noted S of 25N and W of 60W, and 3-5 ft N of 25N and W of 60W.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds will
pulse off Hispaniola during the late afternoons and early evenings
into Tue night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere,
freshening S of 25N toward the end of the week.

$$
AL
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