[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Aug 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...Special Features...

Meteo-France is forecasting possible northerly gale winds in
their Agadir marine zone by 15/1200Z. Please read the latest High
Sea Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website:

https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from
the eastern Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 5 to
10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
from 11N to 16N between 22W and 26W, including the Cabo Verde
Islands.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 15N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted
at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from Cuba southward
to northwest Colombia. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over
southeastern Cuba, Jamaica and the Windward Passage.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the Mauritania coast near
18N16W and extends southwestward to 12N37W to 09N50W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N50W to 09N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection 06N to 17N and E of 40W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 46W and 57W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern tip of a tropical wave over southern Mexico/East
Pacific is triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the western Bay of Campeche. These storms are
beginning to subside this evening. A surface trough runs
southward from the Florida Panhandle to the southeastern Gulf.
Aided by a mid- level trough in the vicinity, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are occurring at the central and east- central
Gulf. A modest surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1017 mb
high to near Tampico, Mexico. This feature is supporting light to
gentle with locally moderate winds near showers, and seas of 1 to
3 ft for the central and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail over the eastern Bay of Campeche
off the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, a trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each
night supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan. Elsewhere, a
ridge over the Gulf will support mostly gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas across the basin through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A robust upper-level low at the western basin near 17N87W is
triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the western basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Caribbean
Basin. The Atlantic Ridge north of the area near 27N is
sustaining a trade-wind regime across much of the basin. Fresh
with locally strong easterly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist for
the central basin. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas in moderate easterly swell are present near Costa Rica and
Panama. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen
at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and near
the Cayman Islands. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6
ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic Ridge over the western Atlantic
will support fresh to locally strong winds across mainly the
south-central Caribbean through mid week. Moderate winds and seas
will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent southerly winds and a surface trough over the Bahamas are
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of
23N between 73W and the Georgia- northeast Florida coast. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the
beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic Ridge extending southwestward from a 1024 mb high
near 35N45W to the northwest Bahamas is providing light to gentle
with locally moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 25N
between 60W and the Georgia-Florida coast. At the central Atlantic
north of 20N, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE trades and
seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident between 25W and 60W. Near the
Canary Islands, fresh to strong NNE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft
are seen. North of 21N between the Africa coast and 25W, moderate
to locally fresh winds and seas 4 to 7 ft are noted. For the
tropical Atlantic from 11N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser
Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE trades and 6 to
8 ft seas exist. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle NE
and monsoonal westerly winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft are noted from
12N to 21N between the central Africa coast and 30W. Gentle to
moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft
in moderate to large southerly swell prevail for the remainder of
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough will move westward
toward the Bahamas into Tue. Expect moderate to fresh easterly
winds south of 24N following the trough. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse off Hispaniola during the late afternoons and
early evenings into Tue night.

$$
AReinhart
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