[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Aug 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...Special Features...

Meteo-France is forecasting possible northerly gale winds in
their Agadir marine zone by 15/1200Z. Please read the latest High
Sea Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website:

https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from
the eastern Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 5 to
10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
from 08N to 17N between 26W and 35W, including the Cabo Verde
Islands.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 15N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08N to 10N between 37W and 43W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from Haiti
southward to over the Colombia-Venezuela border. It is moving
west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are present over southeastern Cuba, Jamaica and near Haiti.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Mauritania-Senegal
border, then extends southwestward through 13N30W to 09N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is flaring up south of the trough
from 07N to 13N between Gambia-Sierra Leone coast and 20W. An
ITCZ continues westward from 09N48W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted up to 150 nm north and 60 nm south of the
ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern tip of a tropical wave over southern Mexico/East
Pacific is triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the western Bay of Campeche. A surface trough
runs southward from the Florida Panhandle to the southeastern
Gulf. Aided by a mid-level trough in the vicinity, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are occurring at the central and east-
central Gulf. A modest surface ridge extends southwestward from a
1017 mb high to near Tampico, Mexico. This feature is supporting
light to gentle with locally moderate winds near showers, and seas
of 1 to 3 ft for the central and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula
each night supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan.
Elsewhere, the 1017 mb high and related ridge will support mostly
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the Gulf into Fri
night

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A robust upper-level low at the western basin near 16N83W is
triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the western basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Caribbean
Basin. The Atlantic Ridge north of the area near 25N is sustaining
a trade-wind regime across much of the basin. Fresh with locally
strong easterly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist for the central
basin. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in
moderate easterly swell are present near Costa Rica and Panama.
Gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen at the
northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and near the
Cayman Islands. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic Ridge over the western Atlantic
will support fresh to locally strong winds across mainly the
south-central Caribbean through mid week. Moderate winds and seas
will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent southerly winds are producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms north of 28N between 78W and the Georgia-
northeast Florida coast. A surface trough is causing similar
conditions from the central Bahamas eastward to near 72W. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the
beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic Ridge extending southwestward from a 10145 mb high
near 35N47W across 31N62W to the northwest Bahamas is providing
light to gentle with locally moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas
north of 20N between 60W and the Georgia-Florida coast. At the
central Atlantic north of 20N, gentle to moderate with locally
fresh NE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident between 25W and
60W. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally
strong NNE trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft are seen north of 21N
between the Africa coast and 25W. For the tropical Atlantic from
11N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh NE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas exist. Near the
Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle NE and monsoonal westerly winds
and seas at 3 to 6 ft are noted from 12N to 21N between the
central Africa coast and 30W. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh southerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in moderate to large
southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough will move across
the Bahamas early this week. Expect moderate to fresh easterly
winds south of 24N following the trough through Tue. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse off Hispaniola during the late
afternoons and early evenings through Tue.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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