[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092127
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Aug 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W, south
of 17N, and is moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 15W and 25W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W/36W,
south of 17N, and is moving slowly W at around 5 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 29W and 40W.

A tropical wave approaching Trinidad and Tobago and the Lesser
Antilles has its axis along 60W, south of 20N, moving W at around
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 17N between
59W and 67W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W, south
of 21N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is
noted over water.

A tropical wave previously in the far NW Caribbean has moved
inland over Central America. For further information on this
tropical wave, please see the Tropical Weather Discussion for the
East Pacific Ocean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues westward to 08N34W to
09N45W. The ITCZ extends from 09N45W to 12N53W. Convection is
described in the tropical waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is in the SW Gulf. Otherwise, weak riding
extends across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S
winds are offshore NE Mexico and S Texas. Otherwise, mainly light
to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 2-4 ft in the western half of
the Gulf, and 1-2 ft in the eastern half of the Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging across the basin will support
gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin during the next
several days. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the western
Gulf will prevail through tonight, then pulse through the weekend.
A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night,
producing moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan
Peninsula through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A diffuse pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia results in gentle to
locally moderate trades across the Caribbean, except locally fresh
in the S-central portion. Seas are 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean, and
3-5 ft elsewhere. Patches of moisture in the low level trades may
result in some showers and thunderstorms this evening.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail
over the Caribbean through tonight, with fresh winds in the south-
central basin. A tropical wave will move into the eastern and
central Caribbean Thu through Fri, bringing fresh winds and
moderate seas. On Sat and through the forecast period, fresh to
strong winds and moderate seas will pulse across the south central
Caribbean in the evening hours, while moderate to fresh winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is enhancing an area of scattered moderate
convection north of Hispaniola, from 20N to 26N between 66W and
73W, including the Turks and Caicos. A stationary front extends
from 31N39W to 30N42W to 31N46W. Scattered moderate convection
associated with the front is from 27N to 31N between 37W and 60W.
A frontal trough extends from 31N74W northeastward with associated
scattered moderate convection N of 29N between 69W and 77W.
Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-8 ft near both features are
found N of 29N between 35W and 74W.

1020 mb high pressures are centered near 26N55W and 30N21W. Light
to gentle anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere across the basin
around the high pressure centers, locally moderate to fresh from
14N to 19N between 52W and 61W in the wake of a tropical wave.
Seas 3-5 ft under a ridge axis extending between/through the
highs, and 4-7 ft in mixed NE and SE swell elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will
continue to be situated near 27N through much of the week.
Moderate to fresh winds can be expected through tonight S of 25N
and E of 78W. Later in the week, the northern portion of a
tropical wave is expected to move across the southeastern waters.
This will increase winds fresh to strong with moderate seas across
the region Thu through Sat, including the Bahamas. Moderate to
fresh winds will resume on Sun.

$$
Lewitsky
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