[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091712
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Aug 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W, south
of 17N, and is stationary. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 10N and east of 20W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W,
south of 17N, and is stationary. Scattered showers are noted in
the vicinity of the tropical wave.

A tropical wave approaching Barbados and the Lesser Antilles has
its axis along 59W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from the coast of Venezuela
north to 14N between 60W and 64W. Scatterometer detected fresh
trades at the surface near the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W, south
of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
in the Windward Passage near the northern terminus of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave previously in the W Caribbean has moved inland
over Central America. For further information on this tropical
wave, please see the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East
Pacific Ocean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues westward to 08N42W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N42W to 14N56W. Convection is described in the
tropical waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, weak
riding extends across the Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. S winds are moderate near the coast
of Texas.

For the forecast, surface ridging across the basin will support
gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin during the next
several days. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the western
Gulf will prevail through tonight, then pulse through the weekend.
A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night,
producing moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan
Peninsula through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A diffuse pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia results in gentle to
locally moderate trades across the Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas.
Patches of moisture in the low level trades may result in some
showers and tstorms today.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail
over the Caribbean through tonight, with fresh winds in the south-
central basin. A tropical wave will move into the eastern and
central Caribbean Thu through Sat, bringing fresh to strong winds
and moderate seas. By Sun, fresh winds and moderate seas will
prevail through most of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is enhancing an area of scattered moderate
convection north of Hispaniola, from 20N to 23N between 67W and
73W, including the Turks and Caicos. 1020 mb high pressures are
centered near 26N55W and 30N21W. Light to gentle anticyclonic
flow prevails across the basin around the high pressure centers.
Seas are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will
continue to be situated along 25N through much of the week.
Moderate to fresh winds can be expected through tonight S of 25N
and E of 78W. Later in the week, the northern portion of a
tropical wave is expected to move across the southeastern waters.
This will increase winds fresh to strong with moderate seas across
the region Thu through Sat, including the Bahamas. Moderate to
fresh winds will resume on Sun.

$$
Mahoney
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