[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100443
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Aug 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0435 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NE Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between the
1024 mb subtropical ridge located north of the Madeira Islands and
lower pressures in NW Africa support strong to gale-force
northerly winds off the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara,
including the Canary Islands. Meteo-France has a gale warning in
effect until 11/0000 UTC for the Canarias region with the
strongest winds occurring in the water passages between the Canary
Islands. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W, south
of 17N, and is moving slowly westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 06N to 11N and east of 26W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W,
south of 17N, and is moving slowly westward at 5 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N and between 30W and
42W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W, south
of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 12N to 22N and between 61W and 70W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 76W, south
of 21N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted
over water.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 12.5N16W and continues westward to 09N38W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N38W to 09N50W to 11N61W. Convection is described
in the tropical waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic extends
westward into the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures over Texas and Mexico support moderate to fresh
southerly winds west of 87W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. The
strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off southern Texas
and NE Tamaulipas. Locally moderate or weaker winds and slight
seas prevail elsewhere in the Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging across the Gulf will support
gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin during the next
several days. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the
western Gulf through tonight then pulse through the weekend. A
thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night,
producing moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan
Peninsula through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the convection already described in the Tropical Waves
section, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the
nearshore waters of southern Cuba and NW Colombia. A dry airmass
is found in the rest of the Caribbean Sea, suppressing the
development of convection. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
trade winds and seas of 3-5 ft are present in the central and
eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail over
the Caribbean through tonight, with fresh winds in the south-
central basin. A tropical wave will move into the eastern and
central Caribbean Thu through Fri, bringing fresh to locally
strong winds and moderate seas. On Sat and through the forecast
period, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas will pulse across
the south central Caribbean in the evening hours, while moderate
to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on the GALE
WARNING in the NE Atlantic.

A surface trough located north of Hispaniola and divergence aloft
sustain a large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms,
especially south of 28N and between 66W and 73W. Farther east,
scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N and between
41W and 53W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a
broad subtropical ridge maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions.

Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are evident south of 25N
and west of 55W, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will
continue to be situated near 27N through much of the week.
Moderate to fresh winds can be expected through tonight S of 25N
and E of 78W. Later in the week, the northern portion of a
tropical wave is expected to move across the southeastern waters.
This will increase winds fresh to locally strong with moderate
seas across the region Thu through Sat, including the Bahamas.
Moderate to fresh winds will resume on Sun.

$$
DELGADO
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