[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081632
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Aug 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located near 29W, south of
17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection
is depicted west of the wave from 06N to 08N and between 29W and
33W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is located near 53W, south of
17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is depicted from 07N to 15N and
between 50W and 56W.

A eastern Carribbean tropical wave is located in between the
Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, with its axis near 63W, south of
21N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is depicted from 14N to 22N between 59W and 65W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is located near 81W, south of
20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is depicted near the eastern Pacific monsoon
trough and the wave axis, S of 11N between 76W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Banjul near 14N16W to 10N37W. The ITCZ continues from 10N38W to
12N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
mostly along the ITCZ from 07N to 15N between 36W and 47W.
Scattered moderate convection is moving off the coast of Africa
from 06N to 11N and E of 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure system located near 29N86W. A
surface trough extends in the central Bay of Campeche. No
significant convection is associated with the trough. A weak
pressure gradient promotes gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds.
Seas of 2 to 4 ft are depicted west of 90W and 1 to 2 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure over the area
will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin
during the next several days. Moderate return flow across the
western Gulf will become moderate to fresh by Wed, continuing
through most of the week. A thermal trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh winds to
the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula through most of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the
nearshore waters south of eastern Cuba in association to an upper
level trough. For convection in the eastern Carribbean, please
refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above. Elsewhere, a generally
dry airmass suppresses the development of deep convection. The
pressure gradient between the ridge north of the islands and lower
pressures in northern South America support fresh easterly trade
winds in the central Caribbean, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.
Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail in the rest of
the basin.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds will prevail over the central
Caribbean. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh trades are expected over
the eastern basin, with gentle to moderate trades are expected in
the western basin. Winds across the Caribbean will diminish
slightly tonight into Wed night. A tropical wave will move into
the eastern and central Caribbean Thu into Fri, bringing fresh to
strong winds and moderate seas to the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The combination of a 1023 mb subtropical ridge positioned near
27N45W and a dry air mass associated with Sahara Dust are
suppressing convection development north of 15N. However, an upper
level trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms
north of Dominican Republic between 65W and 71W. For information
about convection in the tropical Atlantic, please refer to the
TROPICAL WAVES and MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ sections above.

Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds due to the pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the tropics are
found south of 25N and west of 39W. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7
ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will
continue to be situated along 26N through much of the week. Fresh
E trade winds S of 25N and E of 75W will diminish to mostly
moderate speeds tonight through Wed night. Winds off the N coast
of Hispaniola will pulse moderate to fresh through Thu. Later in
the week, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to
move across the southeastern waters. This will increase winds
fresh to strong across the region Thu through Sat, including the
Bahamas.

$$
KRV
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