[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Aug 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28W, south
of 16N, moving westward at 10 kt. No deep convection is noted
near the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W, south of
17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 05N to 09N and between 47W and 51W.

A tropical wave is near the Lesser Antilles, with its axis along
61W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 16N to 22N
between 58W and 63W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 78W, south
of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted near the monsoon trough and the wave
axis, S of 11N between 76W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
The Gambia near 11N16W to 10N39W. The ITCZ continues from 10N39W
to 11N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted mostly along the ITCZ from 07N to 14N between 36W and 57W.
Scattered moderate convection is moving off the coast of Africa
from 06N to 13N and E of 21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure system located near 27N86W. A
trough extends in the eastern Bay of Campeche with some scattered
showers noted around it. The weak pressure gradient promotes
primarily moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds. Seas of 3-4 ft
are noted west of 90W and 1-2 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure over the area
will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin
during the next several days. Moderate return flow across the
western Gulf will become moderate to fresh by Wed, continuing
through most of the week. A thermal trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh winds to
the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula through most of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the
nearshore waters of southern Cuba and Hispaniola. Scattered
thunderstorms are also noted in the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, a
generally dry airmass suppresses the development of deep
convection. The pressure gradient between the ridge north of the
islands and lower pressures in northern South America support
fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the central
Caribbean, along with seas of 5-8 ft. The strongest winds are
seen on earlier scatterometer satellite data in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will
prevail over the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh
trades are expected over the eastern basin, with gentle to
moderate trades are expected in the western basin. Winds across
the Caribbean will diminish slightly tonight into Wed night. A
tropical wave will move into the eastern and central Caribbean Thu
into Fri, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and moderate
seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb subtropical ridge positioned near 28N50W dominates the
tropical Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions
outside of the deep tropics. There are a few exceptions, including
divergence aloft producing a few showers north of 29N and between
63W and 69W. Similar activity is noted in the Straits of Florida.
Scattered moderate convection is also seen south of 22N between
63W and 70W in association with the tropical wave in the area as
mentioned in the Tropical Waves section. These storms are
impacting north of Hispaniola.

Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds due to the pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the tropics are
found south of 26N and west of 37W. Seas in these waters are 5-7
ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will
continue to be situated along 28N through much of the week. Fresh
E trade winds S of 25N and E of 75W will diminish to mostly
moderate speeds tonight through Wed. Seas generated by these winds
will gradually subside this morning. Winds off the N coast of
Hispaniola will pulse moderate to locally fresh today through Thu.
Later in the week, the northern portion of a tropical wave is
expected to move across the southeastern waters. This will
increase winds fresh to locally strong across the region Thu
through Sat, including the Bahamas.

$$
AReinhart
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