[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Aug 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has emerged from the west coast
of Africa and is located near 20W, south of 18N, moving westward
around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N to 12N between 14W and 23W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located near 32W/33W, south
of 17N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 06N to 08N between 29W and 35W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is located near 54W/55W, south
of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is depicted from 06N to 16N between 50W
and 60W.

A eastern Carribbean tropical wave is located near the Anegada
Passage and eastern Puerto Rico, with its axis near 65W, south of
22N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection enhanced by an upper level low is depicted from
13N to 23N between 60W and 71W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is located near 82W/83W, south
of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is depicted near the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough and the wave axis, south of 12N between 77W and
85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W to 11N22W to 11N39W. The ITCZ continues from
11N39W to 12.5N52W. Aside from the convection described with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
depicted from 05N to 10N east of 24W, from 07N to 10N between 40W
and 50W, and from 12N to 16N between 43W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge extends across the Gulf of Mexico along 26N.
A weak pressure gradient promotes gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are depicted west of 90W and 1 to 2 ft
elsewhere. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the
eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin
during the next several days. Moderate return flow across the
western Gulf will become moderate to fresh by Wed, continuing
through most of the week. A thermal trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh winds to
the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula through most of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on
any associated impacts and convection.

Elsewhere, a generally dry airmass suppresses the development of
deep convection. The pressure gradient between the ridge north of
the islands and lower pressures in northern South America support
fresh easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, along with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
prevail in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds will prevail over the central
Caribbean. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate trades are expected in
the eastern and western basin. Winds across the Caribbean will
diminish slightly tonight into Wed night. A tropical wave will
move into the eastern and central Caribbean Thu into Fri, bringing
fresh to strong winds and moderate seas to the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on
any associated impacts and convection.

The combination of a 1023 mb subtropical ridge positioned near
26N45W and a dry air mass associated with Sahara Dust are
suppressing convection development elsewhere north of 15N.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds due to the pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the tropics are
found south of 25N and west of 45W, locally strong near the
approach to the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7
ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will
continue to be situated along 28N through much of the week.
Fresh E trade winds S of 25N and E of 78W will diminish to mostly
moderate speeds tonight through Wed. Winds off the N coast of
Hispaniola will pulse moderate to fresh through Thu. Later in the
week, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move
across the southeastern waters. This will increase winds fresh to
strong across the region Thu through Sat, including the Bahamas.

$$
Lewitsky
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