[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Aug 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean is along 32W, from 16N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is from 12N to 14N between
36W and 39W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is from 07N to 11N between 34W and 37W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W, from
20N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to
20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 10N to 20N between 46W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from
21N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to
20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 25N southward between 60W and 72W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W, from
20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to
15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 17N to 23N between 74W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 14N17W, to 10N31W and 10N42W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N42W, to 10N50W and 09N58W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from
12N to 14N between 36W and 39W. Scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong is: within 180 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough between 18W and 25W,
and from 07N to 11N between 34W and 37W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from the
monsoon trough southward from 46W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through Lake Okeechobee in
south Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico,
toward the middle Texas Gulf coast.

A surface trough is along 93W/94W, from 21N southward,
in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are
possible within 135 nm on either side of the trough.

An upper level inverted trough is in the Yucatan
Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 90W eastward, and from 23N northward
from 90W westward.

The sea heights are reaching 1 foot in the eastern half
of the Gulf. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet from
from the coastal waters of Louisiana into the central
sections of the Gulf, and in the coastal waters of
Mexico along 20N. The sea heights are 3 feet elsewhere.
Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow covers the area.

Weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will
support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin.
Moderate return flow across the far western Gulf will
continue through early this week, becoming moderate to
fresh by mid-week. A thermal trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula each night, and will produce moderate
to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for information
about the 65W tropical wave, and the 76W/77W tropical wave.

The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet from
Hispaniola and Jamaica southward between 67W and 81W.
The 9 foot sea heights are in the coastal waters of
Colombia between 75W and 76W. The sea heights are ranging
from 2 feet to 3 feet in the Atlantic Ocean just to the
east of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. The sea
heights are reaching 4 feet in the Venezuela coastal
waters, and off the SE coast of Nicaragua. The sea
heights are 5 feet elsewhere from 70W eastward.
The sea heights are 2 feet from 15N northward from
80W westward. Near gale-force NE winds are from 11N to
13N between 74W and 77W. Strong NE winds are elsewhere
from 17N southward between 70W and 78W. Fresh NE to E
winds are in the remainder of the area that is between
67W and 80W.  the 70W tropical wave and 82W. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate
or slower winds are in the rest of the area.

An upper level inverted trough is in the Yucatan
Peninsula. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough extends from the Peninsula de la
Guajira of Colombia beyond the central sections of
Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
recipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 14N southward from 76W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, according to the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 06/1200 UTC,
are: 2.62 in Bermuda, 0.64 in Guadeloupe, and 0.47 in
San Juan in Puerto Rico.

Fresh trades will prevail over the central Caribbean
through Mon night, with fresh to strong winds over the
south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are
expected over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate
trades are expected in the western Caribbean. Winds
across the basin should diminish slightly by mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is to the northwest of the line that passes through 31N58W
to 24N74W in the Bahamas. The GFS model for 500 mb and for
700 mb shows that a trough is moving through the SE U.S.A.
A stationary front passes trough 32N80W. The trough is
about 460 nm to the NW of the 31N58W-to-24N74W line.

A 1022 mb low pressure center is near 33N30W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate, are from 30N northward between
25W and 40W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N
northward from 35W westward. A surface ridge passes
through a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near
31N52W, to 29N70W, through Lake Okeechobee in south
Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico,
toward the middle Texas Gulf coast.

Strong NE winds are from 18N to 23N between 55W and
61W. Fresh NE winds are from 500 nm to 650 nm to the
south of the line 31N21W 23N31W 25N45W 25N60W. Fresh
and moderate southerly winds are from the monsoon
trough southward from 40W eastward. Moderate or
slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.
Mostly moderate anticyclonic wind flow is from 70W
westward. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to
8 feet from 15N to 25N between 54W and 62W. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, with some
isolated 7 foot heights, elsewhere from 70W eastward
he sea heights are 4 feet or less from 70W westward.

The subtropical ridge axis will continue to be situated
along 28N through much of the week. Expect fresh ESE
trade winds to continue through early Mon S of 25N and
E of 75W. These winds will bring increased trade wind
swell to the area. Winds off the N coast of Hispaniola
will pulse to locally strong speeds during the
afternoons and evenings through Mon.

$$
mt
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