[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062310
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Aug 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 03N to 18N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted west of the wave axis from 07N-15N between 35W-43W. This
system is forecast to cross the Lesser Antilles Wed night and move
into the E Caribbean early Thu, bringing enhanced showers and
thunderstorms, as well as potentially strong winds and building
seas.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 21N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Little to no significant convection
is occurring at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W from 11N to 20N,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Little to no significant convection
is occurring at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from 20N southward
to Panama, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
thunderstorms are occurring along the southern portion of the
wave, affecting Panama and its Gulf.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the
Senegal/Mauritania border near 15N17W to 10N41W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 10N49W, then resumes near 09N52W to
09N58W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up from 04N-16N
and E of 26W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin. This is supporting
light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft across the eastern
Gulf. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 3 to 4 ft seas dominate
the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and
seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate return flow across the far western
Gulf will continue through early this week, becoming moderate to
fresh by mid-week. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan
Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh winds to the
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near Jamaica and southern Cuba, and nearby waters.
Scattered thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery within 90
nm of the coast of western Panama and SE Costa Rica.

A tight gradient between the Atlantic ridge to the north near 27N
and lower pressure over northern Colombia is causing fresh ENE to
E winds across the central Caribbean, fresh to strong in the
south-central Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft in this region, except
for 6-8 ft in the south-central basin. Fresh winds also cover
most of the eastern Caribbean, where seas are 4-6 ft. Gentle to
moderate E winds and 1-3 ft seas cover the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh trades will prevail over the central Caribbean
through Mon night, with fresh to strong winds over the south-
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are expected over
the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are expected in
the western Caribbean. Winds across the basin will diminish
slightly by mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are occurring north of 26N and W of 70W. 1026
mb high pressure centered near 31N51W extends a surface ridge W
to 29N63W to the NW Bahamas. To the south, fresh trades and 7 to 9
ft seas prevail from 16N to 23N between 47W and 64W. Moderate to
fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere south of 26N
between 67W and 75W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will continue
to be situated along 28N through much of the week. Expect fresh ESE
trade winds to continue through early Mon S of 25N and E of 75W.
These winds will bring increased trade wind swell to the area.
Winds off the N coast of Hispaniola will pulse to locally strong
speeds during the afternoons and evenings through Mon.

$$
ERA
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