[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Aug 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from 04N to 16N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted west of the wave axis from 04N-10N between 30W-40W. This
system is forecast to cross the Lesser Antilles Wed night and move
into the E Caribbean early Thu, bringing enhanced showers and
thunderstorms, as well as potentially strong winds and building
seas.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 21N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Little to no significant convection
is occurring due to the presence of this tropical wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W from 12N to 23N,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are
occurring from Puerto Rico northward to 24N between 62W and 67W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W from 20N southward
to Colombia, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
thunderstorms are occurring along the northern end of the wave
from 17N to 20N between 74W and 77W, including over the waters
between Haiti, Jamaica and SE Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the
Senegal/Mauritania border near 16N17W to 08N31W to 12N43W to
12N54W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
flaring up south of the trough from 07N to 13N between 14W and
20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb surface high pressure is centered over the NE Gulf
near 27N87W, spreading ridging across the basin. This is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft across the
eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 3 to 4 ft seas
dominate the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE to S
winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin.
Moderate return flow across the far western Gulf will continue
through early this week, becoming moderate to fresh by mid-week. A
thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night,
and will produce moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near Jamaica and southern Cuba, and nearby waters.
Refer to the Tropical Waves section above. Some thunderstorms are
also noted on satellite imagery within 90 nm of the coast of
western Panama and SE Costa Rica.

A tight gradient between the Atlantic ridge to the north near 27N
and lower pressure over northern Colombia is causing fresh ENE to
E winds across the central Caribbean, fresh to strong in the
south-central Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft in this region, except
for 7-9 ft in the south-central basin. Fresh winds also cover most
of the eastern Caribbean, where seas are 4-6 ft. Gentle to
moderate E winds and 1-3 ft seas cover the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh trades will prevail over the central
Caribbean through Mon night, with fresh to strong winds over the
south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are expected
over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are expected
in the western Caribbean. Winds across the basin should diminish
slightly by mid-week. Looking ahead, a strong tropical wave could
cross the E Caribbean Wed night through Thu night, potentially
causing an increase in winds and seas behind the wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant thunderstorm activity is occurring north of 30N between
60W and 80W. 1027 mb high pressure centered near 31N49W extends
a surface ridge WSW to 29N63W to the NW Bahamas. To the south,
fresh trades and 7 to 9 ft seas prevail from 14N to 26N between
40W and 67W. Fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen south of 25N
between 67W and 75W. Moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas are elsewhere
W of 60W. The subtropical ridge is creating light to gentle winds
and 3-5 ft seas north of 27N between 23W and 60W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will
continue to be situated along 28N through much of the week. Expect
fresh ESE trade winds to continue through early Mon S of 25N and
E of 75W. These winds will bring increased trade wind swell to the
area. Winds off the N coast of Hispaniola will pulse to locally
strong speeds during the afternoons and evenings through Mon.

$$
Hagen
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