[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Aug 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1010 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 29W from 05N to
20N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 28W and 36W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis NNW-SSE from
21N46W to 06N44W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 06N to 10N between 43W and 49W, and from
15N to 18N between 46W and 49W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W from 21N
southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is noted from 15N to 21N between 62W and 69W, including
near Puerto Rico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near 20N16W to 13N25W to 11N39W to 09N47W. The ITCZ continues from
09N47W to 10N56W to 13N59W. Outside of the convection mentioned
in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is
noted south of the trough from 06N to 12N between 13W and 20W.
Similar convection is noted near the ITCZ between 55W-59W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean waters near western
Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep-layered ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, leading
to subsidence. Other than a few showers near the coast of
Veracruz, Mexico, no significant precipitation areas are noted in
the basin. A surface ridge is leading to light to gentle winds
across the eastern and central Gulf, where seas are less than 2
ft. Moderate S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the western
Gulf. Recent satellite altimeter data and buoy data show seas near
3 ft off the Texas coast. Moderate ESE winds and 2 to 3 ft seas
are in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin.
Moderate return flow across the far western Gulf will continue
through the upcoming weekend. A thermal trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula each night, and will produce moderate to fresh
winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough axis extends from NE Colombia to Jamaica and
westward to Cancun, Mexico. Convergent easterly trade winds
between Cuba and Jamaica as well as the upper-trough are inducing
scattered thunderstorms from 18N to 20N between 76W and the Cayman
Islands. Scattered moderate convection is also noted near and over
the coast of southern Belize from 15.5N to 18.5N between 87.5W and
89.5W. Fresh trades are occurring in the south-central Caribbean,
strong near the coast of Colombia. Moderate winds are elsewhere in
the central and SW Caribbean, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras.
Gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the basin, except for
moderate to locally fresh behind the tropical wave in the far
eastern Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean
and 1 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S
central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the
central and eastern Caribbean. Winds will pulse to moderate to
fresh in the Gulf of Honduras late this afternoon through this
evening. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere in the
western Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough runs southwestward from 31N64W to the central
Bahamas. An upper-level trough is also present over the same area.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted east of the
trough axis from 27N to 31N between 56W and 65W. A 1017 mb high
pressure 33N73W is providing light to gentle winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft north of 20N between 65W and the Georgia-Florida coast.
The one exception is just off the coast of NE Florida and Georgia,
where moderate S to SW winds have recently commenced.

An expansive 1030 mb high pressure near the Azores is in control
of the pressure pattern across the eastern and central Atlantic.
Fresh trade winds prevail from 15N to 26N between 35W and 65W.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft between 55W-65W, and 6 to 9 ft east of 55W to
the coast of Africa. North of 25N between 50W and 65W, moderate S
winds round the western portion of the ridge axis that extends
from the Azores High. Along the coasts of Morocco, Western Sahara
and through the Canary Islands, fresh to near gale force NNE winds
and 7 to 10 ft seas prevail. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or
weaker, with seas 6 ft or less.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough extending from
31N64W to the central Bahamas will retreat slowly NW today while
weakening. SW winds will briefly increase to moderate to locally
fresh off NE Florida tonight. Ridging will dominate the basin this
weekend into early next week. Expect trade winds to increase to
fresh speeds over the weekend S of 25N and E of 75W. Winds off the
N coast of Hispaniola will pulse to locally strong speeds during
the afternoons and evenings Sat through Mon.

$$
Hagen
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