[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Aug 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 31W from 05N to
20N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 08N to 11N between 32W and 38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W from 05N to 19N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N
to 08N between 46W and 50W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W from 20N
southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms
are noted near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 11N36W to 10N50W. The ITCZ continues
from 10N50W to 12N58W. Scattered showers are near the Windward
Islands.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1017 mb high pressure is near 27N89W in the central Gulf. Light to
gentle flow and 1-3 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin.
Moderate return flow across the far western Gulf will continue
through the upcoming weekend. A thermal trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula each night, and will produce moderate to fresh
winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relaxed pressure gradient across the Caribbean provides light to
gentle trades across the basin, increasing to moderate speeds in
the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas are
4-7 ft in the central and southwest Caribbean, with locally 8 ft
seas off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern and
northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S
central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the
central and eastern Caribbean. Winds will pulse to moderate to
fresh in the Gulf of Honduras late this afternoon through this
evening. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere in the
western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough runs southwestward from 31N64W to 25N71W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the trough axis
from 28N to 31N between 60W and 64W. North of 20N and west of 60W,
SE winds are light to gentle. North of 20N and east of 60W, NE to
E winds are gentle to moderate, increasing to fresh to strong
speeds near the coast of Africa. South of 20N, NE to E winds are
moderate to fresh. 6-8 ft seas in NNE swell are in the central
Atlantic from 12N to 27N east of 55W. 4-6 ft seas are elsewhere in
open waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough extending from
31N64W to the central Bahamas will retreat slowly NW today while
weakening. SW winds will briefly increase to moderate to locally
fresh off NE Florida tonight. Ridging will dominate the basin this
weekend into early next week. Expect trade winds to increase to
fresh speeds over the weekend S of 25N and E of 75W. Winds off the
N coast of Hispaniola will pulse to locally strong speeds during
the afternoons and evenings Sat through Mon.

$$
Mahoney
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