[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Aug 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 27W from 18N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between
25W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 20N southward,
and moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 06N to 18N between 39W and 47W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is crossing the Lesser Antilles
near 61W from 19N southward across the border between Venezuela
and Guyana. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near Puerto
Rico, the Virgin and Leeward Islands and just east of Barbados.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
north of Nouakchott, then extends southwestward through 12N30W to
09N46W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N46W to 09N56W. Outside
of the convection mentioned in the Tropical Wave section,
scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from
07N to 13N between the Guinea Bissau-Sierra Leone coast and 18W.
No significant convection is present near the ITCZ based on the
latest analysis.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
isolated thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters near northwestern
Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough near the western coast of Florida is producing
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over southern
Florida and nearby Gulf waters, including the Florida Keys. A
surface ridge extending southwestward from the Florida Panhandle
to a 1015 mb high over the west-central Gulf is supporting light
to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft across the central and
eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate
with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the 1015 mb high and related ridge will support
gentle to moderate winds over most of the Gulf. Moderate
southeasterly winds across the far western Gulf will continue
through the upcoming weekend. A nighttime trough will move off
the Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh
winds northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent easterly trade winds are generating scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across southern parts of Cuba and
Haiti, and nearby waters. The northern portion of a East Pacific
tropical wave across the Yucatan Peninsula is causing scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the Belize and Honduras coastal
waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections above for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin.

The Atlantic Ridge north of the area near 25N continues to support
a trade-wind regime across much of the basin, except near Panama
and northwestern Colombia. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas at 6
to 8 ft are present at the south-central basin, just north of
Colombia and Venezuela. Mainly gentle NE to E winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas dominate waters south of Cuba, including near the Cayman
Islands and Jamaica. Gentle N to NW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
exist just north of Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to locally
fresh ENE to ESE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in
the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the
south-central basin, while moderate to fresh trades are expected
elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Winds will pulse
to between moderate and fresh in the Gulf of Honduras during the
late afternoons and evenings through Fri night. Gentle to moderate
trades should persist elsewhere in the western basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough runs southwestward from near Bermuda across
31N64W to the central Bahamas. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring from the northwest and
central Bahamas eastward to near 70W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

For the western Atlantic, a 1018 mb high off the North Carolina
coast is providing light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
north of 20N between 65W and the Georgia-Florida coast. To the
east, a large 1030 mb Azores High is channeling moderate to fresh
NNE to SE trades and 6 to 9 ft seas north of 20N between 20W and
65W. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong NNE trades and seas
at 6 to 10 ft dominate north of 22N between the northwest Africa
coast and 20W. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh NE to ESE trades and 5 to 8 ft seas are present from
11N to 20N between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal westerly winds
and seas of 4 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough will retreat slowly
northwestward on Fri while weakening. SW winds will increase to
between moderate and locally fresh off northeastern Florida Fri
night into early Sat. Ridging will dominate the basin this weekend
into early next week. Expect trade winds south of 25N and east of
75W to become fresh over the weekend. Winds off the northern
coast of Hispaniola will pulse to strong during the afternoons and
evenings Sat through Mon.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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