[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Aug 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W from 18N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
from 09N to 14N between 14W and 21W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 20N southward,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 09N to 14N between 32W and 39W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted along this
wave at this time.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W from 19N southward to
Panama, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is noted W of the wave from 10N to 20N between 79W and 85W.

A tropical wave is moving through the Bay of Campeche through the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The wave is along 95W
from 21N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the southern Bay of Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 14N17W to 11N44W. The ITCZ extends from 11N44W to the coast
of Venezuela near 09N60W. Outside of the convection associated
with tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from
07N to 10N between 53W and 57W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored
by a 1019 mb high near 27N89W. The most significant convection is
associated with a tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds prevail across most of the basin. Moderate
to locally fresh winds are noted off the NW coast of the Yucatan.
Seas are to 2 ft across the Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging prevails across the
northern Gulf. The ridge will support gentle to moderate winds
over most of the basin. Moderate return flow will develop across
the W Gulf tonight through the upcoming weekend as high pressure
shifts into the eastern Gulf. A thermal trough will emerge off the
Yucatan Peninsula and will produce nightly moderate to fresh
winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula, locally strong
tonight and Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered thunderstorms are impacting the Greater Antilles and
their adjacent waters. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted in
the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trade
winds are noted in the south- central Caribbean. Seas range 4 to 6
ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are also noted in the Gulf of
Honduras and off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trade winds prevail through most of the basin.
Seas range 2 to 4 ft across the rest of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S
central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the
central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades will
prevail in the western Caribbean, except pusling to moderate to
fresh in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is noted E of the Bahamas to
Bermuda from 22N to 31N between 65W and 78W. Otherwise, moderate
NE winds are noted off the Florida coast N of 27N and W of 70W. S
of 27N, light to gentle winds are noted. Seas range 2 to 4 ft in
this area.

A 1015 mb low pressure is located in the central Atlantic
near 30N59W. This low has scattered moderate convection noted
within 60 nm of the center. Fresh winds are noted E of the low
with seas to 8 ft. Environmental conditions are becoming
increasingly less favorable for tropical cyclone formation, and
the low is expected to move northward and merge with a frontal
system over the north-central Atlantic in the next day or two.
This low pressure has a low chance of development in the next 48
hours and 7 days.

Otherwise, surface ridging extends across the the central and
eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1029 mb high near 36N38W. Moderate
to fresh winds are noted N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough with strong
winds off the African coast. Seas range 6 to 9 ft. South of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and seas to 6 ft are
noted.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weak frontal trough in the central
offshore waters will drift SE through Thu, then retreat by the end
of the week. Ridging will dominate the basin this weekend into
early next week. Expect trade winds to increase to fresh speeds
over the weekend S of 25N and E of 75W.

$$
AReinhart
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