[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Aug 02 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean is along 18W, from 19N southward,
moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 60 nm on
either side of the tropical wave from 11N to 13N.
Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from 10N to 12N between 21W and 24W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W, from
21N southward, moving westward about 20 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 07N to 13N between 30W and 40W. This
precipitation also is near the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W,
from 19N southward, moving westward about 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 05N to 12N
between 40W and 60W.

An Atlantic Ocean north-to-south oriented surface
trough is along 58W/59W from 12N to 22N. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
10N to 23N between 56W and 63W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from
20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
The wave is moving through the westernmost parts of
Jamaica. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate,
and widely scattered to scattered strong, is from 10N
to 19N between the tropical wave and 86W. Some of the
precipitation is reaching Central America from Costa
Rica to eastern sections of Honduras.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico and through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico. The wave is along 94W, from 21N
southward, and it is moving westward about 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 27N southward
from 90W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 16N20W 13N30W 11N40W 09N47W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 15N between 26W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 27N87W. High
pressure spans the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.
The surface pressure pattern is weak in the western
half of the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave is along
94W, moving through the SW part of the area. An inland
Mexico 1018 mb high pressure center is near 21N98W.

The sea heights are reaching 2 feet in most of the
SW corner of the area, except for 1 foot off the coast
of Mexico at 20N. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot
elsewhere. Moderate wind speeds are to the east of the
94W tropical wave. Gentle winds are elsewhere.

Weak surface ridging prevails across the northern Gulf.
The ridge will support gentle to moderate winds over most
of the basin. Moderate return flow will develop across the
W Gulf tonight through the upcoming weekend as high pressure
shifts into the eastern Gulf. A thermal trough will emerge
off the Yucatan Peninsula and will produce nightly moderate
to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula,
locally strong tonight and Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for information
about a 78W/79W tropical wave, and a 58W/59W surface trough.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from Jamaica southward
from Central America eastward. Slower winds are elsewhere.
The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet within
300 nm to the NE of the Peninsula de la Guajira of northern
Colombia. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet in the Atlantic
Ocean side of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands from 17N
southward. The sea heights are reaching 4 feet in the coastal
waters from Venezuela to the eastern half of Panama. The sea
heights are reaching 3 feet to south of Puerto Rico, 5 feet
to the south of Hispaniola, and 4 feet to south of Jamaica.
The sea heights are reaching 1 foot off the SW coast of Cuba.
The sea heights are reaching 2 feet elsewhere.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia,
westward. Precipitation: no significant deep convective
precipitation is related just to the monsoon trough.
Precipitation is to the west of the 78W/79W tropical wave.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, according to the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 02/1200 UTC,
are: 1.00 in Bermuda, 0.40 in Merida in Mexico, and
0.27 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the
Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong
winds across the central Caribbean through Sat. Strong to near
gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela Wed through Thu during the late afternoon
and early evening hours. Moderate to locally fresh winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 mb low pressure center, AL96, is near 28N59W.
A cold front is about 430 nm to the northwest of the
1015 mb low pressure center. A stationary front continues
along 31N, from 70W westward toward the Georgia/Florida
border. Gentle winds, and sea heights that range from
3 feet to 5 feet, are from 60W westward.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is to the northwest of the line that runs
from 31N48W to 24N59W to 20N68W. The precipitation pattern
remains disorganized. The environmental conditions are
becoming increasingly less favorable for tropical cyclone
formation. The low pressure center is expected to move
northward, and to merge with a north central Atlantic
Ocean frontal system in a few days. Strong SE winds have
been within 240 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle.
The nearby sea heights have been ranging from 8 feet to
11 feet. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center,
at www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 23N northward from the 1015 mb low pressure
center eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to
10 feet from 23N to 29N from 20W eastward.

Moderate trade winds, and sea heights that range from
5 feet to 6 feet, are from 16N northward between 39W and 52W.
Fresh to strong NNE trade winds, and sea heights that range
from 6 feet to 9 feet, are elsewhere from 20N northward
from 35W eastward. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal
westerly winds, and sea heights that are ranging from
5 feet to 6 feet, in moderate southerly swell, cover the
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

High pressure over the area will weaken and shift east-
southeastward beginning Thu as a cold front moves across
the southeastern United States. This will support mainly
moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh
to strong winds and generally moderate seas just
N of Hispaniola at night through Thu night.

$$
mt/jl
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