[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Aug 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been added to the analysis just off the
coast of Africa along 18W from 05N to 15N, moving W around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07.5N to 12N between
16W and 22.5W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 08N to 23N,
moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 06N to 12N between 28W and 35W. The portion of the wave north
of 12N is embedded within very dry Saharan dust.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 06N to 22N,
moving west at 15 kt. Dry Saharan dust north of 10N at low to mid
levels is hindering any significant convection near this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 77/78W from just east
of Jamaica southward to near the Panama-Colombia border. It is
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is noted south of 11N between 76W and 80W, where the
wave intersects the east Pacific monsoon trough. Small areas of
showers and tstorms are also seen off southwestern Jamaica and in
the Windward Passage.

A tropical wave along 93W extends from the Pacific Ocean northward
across southern Mexico to 21N in the Bay of Campeche. The tropical
wave is moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen
south of 22N and west of 92W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near 19N16W to 14N23.5W to 12N37W to 09N48W. Isolated moderate
convection is noted along and within 270 nm S of the monsoon
trough between 35W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from Havana, Cuba to 1017 mb high pressure
near 28N87W to New Orleans, LA. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds
prevail over the eastern Gulf due to the ridge, with seas less
than 2 ft. Moderate SE winds are to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula with seas 2 to 3 ft. Gentle winds and 1-2 ft seas
prevail elsewhere. In addition to the showers and tstorms over the
Bay of Campeche mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, an
upper-level low near the Yucatan Channel is inducing isolated
showers and tstorms over the SE Gulf from 23.5N to 26.5N, east of
87W. Also, a weak surface trough over the western Gulf is inducing
isolated showers and tstorms from 22.5N to 26N between 94W and
95.5W.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will support gentle to
moderate winds over most of the basin. Moderate return flow will
develop across the W Gulf tonight through Fri night as high
pressure shifts into the eastern Gulf. A thermal trough will
emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula and will produce nightly moderate
to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent easterly winds and troughing in the low to mid levels
are inducing numerous moderate scattered strong convection within
180 nm of the coast of Nicaragua, from 11N to 16N between 80.5W
and 84.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted farther to the
NW, over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly clear conditions prevail
over the eastern half of the Caribbean in subsidence. Moderate to
fresh trade winds prevail across the central Caribbean, likely
locally strong off the coast of NW Venezuela. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft in the central Caribbean
and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S
central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the
central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades will
prevail in the western Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 mb low pressure, Invest AL96, is well east-southeast of
Bermuda near 28N58W, moving NW. A surface trough reaches
northeastward from 26N62W through AL96 to 30N56W. Scattered
moderate convection and strong SE winds continue within 240 nm of
the center in the eastern semicircle. Seas in the area are 8 to 11
ft. This system has a low chance of developing into a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours. Read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

An east-west oriented stationary front is draped along 31N west
of 72W. A surface trough extends from Miami, FL northeastward to
30N74W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted north of
25N between 65W and 79W. A surface trough extends along 57/58W
from 13N to 22N. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted within 60
nm of the trough. A surface ridge extends across the W Atlantic
from near 23N60W to 25N66W to the Florida Keys. Gentle winds and
3-5 ft seas prevail across most of the area west of 60W.

Other than the winds and seas near AL96, a large dome of 1029 mb
Azores High pressure near 36N37W is supporting moderate trades
and seas of 5 to 6 ft north of 16N between 39W and 52W. Fresh to
strong NNE trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft exist north of 20N between
the northwest Africa coast and 35W. Light to gentle southerly
and monsoonal westerly winds with seas of 5 to 6 ft in moderate
southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong winds will continue in the
eastern semicircle of AL96 until it moves north of the area late
this afternoon. A weak frontal trough will sink S into the waters
offshore of NE Florida this morning and move SE and reach from
near Bermuda to the northwest Bahamas by Thu. Ridging will
dominate the basin by the end of the week into the weekend. Expect
trade winds to increase to fresh speeds over the weekend south of
25N and east of 75W.

$$
Hagen
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