[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Aug 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from 23N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 20N
to 25N between 32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 19N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Very dry air at low to mid levels
is hindering any significant convection near this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from just east of
Jamaica southward to near the Panama-Colombia border. It is
moving west around 15 kt. Numerous heavy showers and scattered
thunderstorms are occurring near the Panama-Colombia border, and
adjacent Caribbean waters. Isolated thunderstorms are found over
Haiti and south of the Windward Passage.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
just north of Nouakchott, then extends southwestward through
13N30W to 09N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of
the monsoon trough from 06N to 11N between 15W and 23W. An ITCZ
continues from 09N41W to 06N47W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is present near and up to 330 nm south of the monsoon
trough. Similar conditions are seen up to 90 nm north and 130 nm
south of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough reaches southward from a 1015 mb low in
southwestern Georgia to near Tampa, Florida. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are evident over northwestern Florida and
adjacent waters. The northern tip a tropical wave over the
southeastern Mexico and East Pacific is triggering similar weather
in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a modest surface ridge
extending westward from a 1018 mb high over the northeastern Gulf
to near the Texas-Mexico border is dominating much of the region.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are exist across the
eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate
ESE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will stay in place over the
next few days, supporting gentle to moderate winds over most of
the Gulf. A thermal trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula
and will produce nightly moderate to fresh winds to the northwest
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Another high pressure currently over
southern Texas/Louisiana will shift southeastward into the
eastern Gulf tonight and Wed, which allows for moderate southerly
flow to develop across the western Gulf Wed night through Fri
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent easterly winds are generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near and just east of the Costa Rica and
Nicaragua coast. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for
additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. A easterly trade-wind
pattern persists across much of the basin, except a the eastern
end of the East Pacific monsoon trough just north of Panama and
near northwestern Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the south-central basin, north
of northeastern Colombia and northwestern Venezuela. Moderate to
fresh E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are evident at the north-central
basin. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are
seen north of Panama and Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate with
locally fresh ENE to ESE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail
elsewhere in the basin, including the Windward Passage and Yucatan
Channel.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the
south-central basin while moderate to fresh trades exist elsewhere
in the central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate trades will
prevail in the western Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 mb low pressure, Invest AL96 is well southeast of Bermuda near
27N57W. A surface trough reaches northeastward from 24N61W through
AL96 to 30N56W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near
and east of these features from 24N to 30N between 51W and 57W.
Fresh to locally strong SE to S winds with 8 to 10 ft seas are
present in this general area. There is a low chance for tropical
development on this system for the next 48 hours. Read the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center
at: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more
information.

A surface trough extends southwestward from 31N72W to southern
Florida. Convergent southerly winds southeast of this feature are
producing scattered moderate convection from 25N to 31N between
68W and 75W. Another surface trough near 15N57W is causing similar
convection east of the Lesser Antilles from 12N to 23N between 55W
and 59W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections at the beginning for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Other than the winds and seas near AL96, a large dome of 1030 mb
Azores High near 35N38W is supporting gentle to moderate NE to SE
trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft north of 20N between 35W and 60W.
Farther west, light to gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are noted
north of 20N between 60W and the Georgia/Florida coast. Near the
Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE trades
and seas at 6 to 9 ft exist north of 22N between the northwest
Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle to
moderate ENE to ESE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen north of
12N between the Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles. Light to
gentle southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with seas of 5 to 6
ft in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, AL96 is expected to merge with a
frontal system over the north-central Atlantic in about two to
three days. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the eastern
semicircle of this low until it moves north of the area Wed
afternoon. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh trades north of
Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage early this evening will
diminish later tonight. A weak frontal trough will sink
southeastward into the waters offshore of northeastern Florida
tonight and then reach from near Bermuda to the northwest Bahamas
by Thu. Ridging will dominate the basin by the end of the week
into the weekend.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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