[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Aug 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A 1014 mb low pressure
is centered near 26.6N 56.4W or about 800 nm northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 24N to 29N between 3 and
57W. Strong to near-gale force winds accompany the low, mainly in
the E semicircle, with seas of 9 to 11 ft. Environmental
conditions are becoming less favorable for tropical cyclone
formation, and the low is expected to merge with a frontal system
over the north central Atlantic in about two to three days.
Formation chance is low through the next 48 hours and 7 days.
Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 26W from 07N to
21N, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is
observed near this wave due to the presence of dry Saharan dust.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 47W from 03N to
19N, moving west at 20-25 kt. No significant convection is
observed near this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 74W from Haiti
to Colombia, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant
convection is observed near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
20N16W to 12N32W to 07N50W. The ITCZ extends from 07N50W to near
the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the monsoon trough from 06N to 12N between 35W and
43W and north of the ITCZ from 08N to 13N between 51W and 57W.

A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the
SW Caribbean, generating scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection S of 14N and W of 80W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the Bay of Campeche to the central
Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate convection is observed from
20N to 25N between 85W and 95W. Similar convection is observed
along the west coast of Florida. Otherwise, a weak pressure
gradient persists across the region. Winds are light to gentle
across the basin with 1-2 ft seas.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging prevails across the
northern Gulf. The ridge will stay in place over the next few
days, supporting gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin.
A thermal trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula and will
produce nightly moderate to fresh winds by the middle to latter
part of the week. High pressure will shift SE into the east Gulf
tonight and Wed and allow for moderate return flow to develop
across the W Gulf Wed night through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections above for information on convection in the Caribbean
Sea.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure in the SW Caribbean is partially disrupted by Invest
AL96. Moderate to fresh with locally strong easterly trade winds
are noted in the majority of the basin with 4-6 ft seas.
Conditions are more favorable in the NW Caribbean with gentle to
moderate winds and 2-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S
central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the
central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades will
prevail in the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Invest AL96 well NE of the Leeward Islands that has potential
for tropical cyclone development.

A surface trough and upper level divergence is supporting
scattered moderate convection north of 24N and west of 66W.
Otherwise subtropical high pressure prevails across the basin. A
ridge extends from the central Atlantic to the Florida Straits.
North of the ridge, winds are moderate from the SW. South of the
ridge, winds are moderate from the SE. Winds are gentle within
the ridge axis. Seas are 3-5 ft across the western Atlantic.

In the central Atlantic, Invest AL96 is supporting seas to 11 ft
with 8 ft or greater seas from 25N to 29N between 53W and 57W.
Otherwise, easterly winds are moderate to locally fresh with 5-7
ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between
subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over Africa is
supporting fresh to strong NE winds and 6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh trades will pulse this early
evening N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. A weak
frontal trough will sink S into the waters offshore of NE Florida
tonight and move SE and reach from near Bermuda to the northwest
Bahamas by Thu. Ridging will dominate the basin by the end of the
week into the weekend.

$$
AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net