[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Aug 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 18N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 20N southward,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted along this
tropical wave at this time.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 19N southward to
Panama, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident
near this tropical wave.

A tropical wave is moving through the Bay of Campeche through the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The wave is along
95W/96W from 21N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the southern Bay of Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough from the coast of Mauritania to 13N20W to 10N45W.
The ITCZ continues from 10N45W to 12N52W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 24W and 26W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 37W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern is maintaining light to gentle breezes and
1 to 3 ft combined seas across the Gulf. A few showers and
thunderstorms are active across the Bay of Campeche following the
northern portion of a tropical wave moving through the region.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin.
Moderate return flow will develop across the far western Gulf
tonight through the upcoming weekend. A trough will emerge off
the Yucatan Peninsula and will produce nightly moderate to fresh
winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered north of the area is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds along the coast of northwest Venezuela and
northeast Colombia, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere
over the south-central Caribbean. Seas in this area are likely 5
to 7 ft. Fresh E winds may be funneling along the coast of
central Honduras, south of Roatan. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted. Thunderstorm activity is
evident over the Gulf of Gonave, on the southeast side of an upper
trough situated north of the area. No significant convection is
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central
Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the central
and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail in
the western Caribbean, except pusling to moderate to fresh in
the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A few showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough reaching
from roughly Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh N
to NE winds are noted west of this trough, north of 28N.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near Inagua Island
in the southern Bahamas, and off the central north coast of the
Dominican Republic, southeast of an upper trough situated north of
the area. This pattern is also supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of 27N between 55W and 60W.

Farther east, a broad ridge dominates the Atlantic, centered on
1030 mb high pressure west of the Azores near 36N37W. Several
scatterometer and concurrent altimeter passes indicated a band of
fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas from roughly 15N to 25N
east of 45W, between this ridge and tropical waves farther south.
Stronger NE winds are noted off northwest Africa. Moderate winds
and seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough extending from
31N67W to 26N72W will drift SE through Thu, then retreat by the
end of the week. NW of the trough, moderate to locally fresh NE
winds between Bermuda and NE Florida tonight will diminish Thu. SW
winds will then increase to moderate to locally fresh off NE
Florida Fri night into Sat. Ridging will dominate the basin this
weekend into early next week. Expect trade winds to increase to
fresh speeds over the weekend S of 25N and E of 75W.

$$
Christensen
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