[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Apr 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to
enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward
through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are
expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican
offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon.
Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast over the eastern
Gulf ahead of the front. Seas are forecast to build up to 12 or
13 ft with the strongest winds in the wake of the front. Please
see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf of Honduras
is severely restricting visibilities to 1 nm or less. Observations
from Roatan, La Cieba, and Tela have all been reporting low
visibilities this morning. Mariners are urged to excercise
caution if traversing the Gulf of Honduras. The smoke has been
transported over the waters by fresh to strong SE winds.
Visibility is 1 nm or less within waters south of a line from the
coast of Honduras near 16N84W to 18N85W to the coast of Quintana
Roo, Mexico near 19N88W. Visibility is 3 nm or less south of a
line from the coast of Honduras near 15N83W to 19N85W to Cancun,
Mexico. Dense smoke and reduced visibilites are expected through
the weekend. Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N11W then continues to 04N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N18W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection
associated with the ITCZ is from 02S to 03N between 25W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING.

The earlier squall line has dissipated. A small area of scattered
moderate convection is analyzed from 26N to 27N between 85W and
87W. A trough and low pressure is analyzed in the SW Gulf. A
stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to
the coast of Texas near 29N95W. Ahead of the front, moderate to
locally fresh SE winds are noted with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere,
winds are light to gentle and seas are 2-4 ft. Satellite imagery
shows smoke and haze over the southern Gulf of Mexico associated
with agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America. Visibility
may be reduced over these waters.

For the forecast, a stationary front over the NW Gulf will weaken
today. A strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf Sat
morning, then move eastward through early next week. Strong to
gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front
across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz area
Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast over
the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Hazy conditions generated by
agricultural fires in Mexico will linger across the west-central
and central Gulf, and Bay of Campeche today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on DENSE
SMOKE in the Gulf of Honduras.

Fresh to strong winds are noted over the NW Caribbean as well as
just off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the NW Caribbean, and
3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds over the NW
Caribbean will continue through this weekend and transport dense
smoke from agricultural fires across the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh
to locally strong easterly winds are also expected offshore of
Colombia most of this week. Moderate to occasional fresh trades
are anticipated for the rest of the basin S of 16N. A cold front
is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun, and reach from west
central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras by Mon evening, where
it will stall and dissipate on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front extends from 1016 mb low pressure near
28N23W to 19N41W. High pressures are centered as follows: 1018 mb
at 26N47W, 1019 mb at 26N31W, and 1019 mb at 31N17W. A weak trough
is analyzed along the Leeward Islands. Some showers are in the
vicinity of an upper level low centered at 29N40W. Fresh to
locally strong winds are found off the coast of N Florida. Light
to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high pressure centers,
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the discussion
waters. Seas of 8-9 ft area found N of 29N between 35W and 48W,
with seas of 5-6 ft prevailing elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central
Atlantic will build westward along 27N through the weekend. Fresh
southwesterly winds will prevail east of northern Florida through
tonight. Deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will increase
winds and generate large northerly swell north of 28N and east of
60W through Sat. A strong cold front is forecast to move off the
US east coast on Mon, with strong southerly winds developing early
Sun ahead of the front to the N of 25N and W of 75W.

$$
Mahoney
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