[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280830
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to
enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward
through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are
expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican
offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon.
Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast over the eastern
Gulf ahead of the front. Seas are forecast to build up to 12 or
13 ft with the strongest winds in the wake of the front.

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N12W then continues to 04N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N18W to 00N41W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 04N between 26N and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on a gale warning over the SW Gulf.

A squall line is ongoing in the NE Gulf, with numerous strong
and isolated severe thunderstorms from 26N to 30N, between the
coast of Florida and 88W. A stationary front extends across the NW
Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are noted east of 90W, with light to
gentle winds west of 90W. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range east of
90W, and 2-4 ft west of 90W. Satellite imagery shows smoke and
haze over the southern Gulf of Mexico associated with agricultural
fires in SE Mexico and Central America. Visibility may be
restricted over these waters.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the northwestern
Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward through early next week.
Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the
front across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching the
Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Hazy conditions
generated by agricultural fire in Mexico will linger across the
west-central and central Gulf, and Bay of Campeche today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are noted over the NW Caribbean as well as
just off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the NW Caribbean, and
2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean will
continue through this weekend as Atlantic high pressure extends
across N Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to
locally strong easterly winds are also expected offshore of
Colombia most of this week. Moderate to occasional fresh trades
are anticipated for the rest of the basin S of 16N. A cold front
is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun and reach from west
central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras by Mon evening,
where it will stall and dissipate on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N22W to 20N41W. An area of high
pressure is centered near 26N50W, with another area of high
pressure centered near 24N23W. Fresh to locally strong winds are
found off the coast of N Florida. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high center, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere across the discussion waters. Seas of 8-9 ft area found
N of 29N between 35W and 48W, with seas of 5-6 ft prevailing
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build westward
along 27N through the weekend. Fresh southerly winds will develop
east of northern Florida through Sat. Deepening low pressure
northeast of Bermuda will increase winds and generate large
northerly swell north of 28N and east of 60W through Sat. A strong
cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon, with
fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front beginning on
Sun to the N of 25N.

$$
AL
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