[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to
enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward
through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are
expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican
offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon.
Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast over the eastern
Gulf ahead of the front. Seas are forecast to build up to 12 or
13 ft with the strongest winds in the wake of the front.

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N12W then continues to 03N16W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N16W to 00N35W to NE Brazil near 01S46W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed
within 180 nm of the ITCZ, between 25W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A squall line is ongoing in the NE gulf bringing numerous strong
with isolated severe thunderstorms from 26N to 30N, between the
coast of Florida and 84W. A weakening cold front extends from
30N84W to 24N98W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong
convection is observed within 120 nm of the boundary. A
reinforcing cold front extends across the NW Gulf from 29N91W to
27N97W. Winds are moderate from the NW behind the front and,
outside of thunderstorms, winds are moderate to fresh from the
SW-S ahead of the front. Seas are 4-6 ft in the central Gulf and
2-4 ft in the western and far eastern Gulf. Satellite imagery
shows smoke and haze over the southern Gulf of Mexico associated
with agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America.
Visibility may be restricted over these waters.

For the forecast, the reinforcing cold front will shift SE and
reach from the western Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of
Campeche by Fri afternoon, where it will stall and weaken. A
strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf Sat
morning, then move eastward through early next week. Strong to
gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front
across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz
area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast
over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Hazy conditions
generated by agricultural fire in Mexico will linger across the
west-central and central Gulf, and Bay of Campeche through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite derived wind data and buoys are reporting moderate
easterly winds in the central and eastern Caribbean with 2-4 ft
seas. The exception is along the coast of Colombia where NE
winds are fresh to strong and seas are 4-6 ft. In the NW
Caribbean, winds are generally from the SE and increase from a
gentle breeze and 2-4 ft seas south of Cuba to strong winds and6-
8 ft seas in the Gulf of Honduras. Expect fresh SE winds and 4-6
ft seas through the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean
will continue through this weekend as Atlantic high pressure
extends across N Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are also expected
offshore of Colombia most of this week. Moderate to occasional
fresh trades are anticipated for the rest of the basin S of 16N.
A cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun and reach
from west central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras by Mon
evening, where it will stall and dissipate on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low pressure over northern Florida with and approaching squall
line is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms in the
Florida coastal waters north of 27N. Strong southerly winds and
building 5-7 ft seas are noted in these waters. Otherwise the
western Atlantic is relatively featureless other than a weak
1019 mb high pressure centered near 26N53W. West of 60W,
easterly winds are generally gentle to moderate with 5-7 ft
seas. Further east, a weak cold front extends from 31N21W to
17N45W. Winds have decreased to gentle on either side of the
front, but moderate westerlies are observed well behind the
front north of 27N, between 26W and 49W. Combined seas are 7-9
ft in this area, with a moderate period N-NW swell component.
Gentle to moderate NE trades are noted across the tropical
Atlantic with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough over the area
will weaken through Sat. High pressure will then build westward
along 27N through the weekend. Fresh southerly winds will
develop east of northern Florida tonight through Sat. Deepening
low pressure northeast of Bermuda will increase winds and
generate large northerly swell north of 28N and east of 60W
through Sat. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is forecast to
move off the US east coast on Mon, with fresh to strong
southerly winds ahead of the front beginning on Sun to the N of
25N.

$$
Flynn
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