[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to
enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward
through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are
expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore
waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of
the front. Seas are forecast to build up to 12 or 13 ft with the
strongest winds in the wake of the front.

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W then continues to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N16W to 00N35W to NE Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is observed from the Equator to 04N
between 24W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over the NE Gulf, the
Florida Panhandle and northern Florida associated with a 1008 mb
low pressure and the attendant cold front, that extends westward
to near Brownsville, Texas. Another area of showers and
thunderstorms is near the western end of the front over the NW
Gulf. The Storm Prediction Center is indicating Slight Risk areas
of severe storms possible across parts of the Gulf coast. The
strongest storms are producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds and heavy downpours, which may reduce visibility below 1
nm. Mariners are asked to use caution. Moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds are ahead of the front mainly over the central
Gulf with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range. The Atlantic high
pressure extends weakly across Florida and into the eastern Gulf.

Satellite imagery shows smoke and haze over the southern Gulf of
Mexico associated with agricultural fires in SE Mexico and
Central America. This may at times restrict visibility over
these waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will shift slowly
SE and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to the central
Bay of Campeche by Fri afternoon, where it will stall and weaken.
A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf
Sat morning, then move eastward through early next week. Strong
to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front
across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz
area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast
over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Hazy conditions generated
by agricultural fire in Mexico will linger across the west-central
and central Gulf, and Bay of Campeche through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations
of gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin with the
exception of moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras.
Seas are generally in the 3 to 5 ft range, except 5 to 7 ft in
the Gulf of Honduras. No deep convection is noted in the Caribbean
Sea. Transverse high clouds are seen from near the Cayman Islands
eastward across eastern Cuba and parts of Hispaniola due to strong
west winds aloft. An area of multilayer clouds, with embedded
showers, is affecting mainly the Leeward Islands and regional
Atlantic waters.

Visible satellite imagery indicates smoke and haze over the Gulf
of Honduras due to agricultural fires in Central America. This
may reduce the visibility over the waters described and mariners
are asked to use caution.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean
will continue through this weekend as Atlantic high pressure
extends across N Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are also expected offshore
of Colombia most of this week. Moderate to occasional fresh
trades are anticipated for the rest of the basin S of 16N. A cold
front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun and reach from
west central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras by Mon evening,
where it will stall and then dissipate on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low pressure of 1013 mb located near 24N65W is interrupting
Atlantic high pressure this afternoon. A swirl of low clouds is
associated with the low center. A large area of multilayer
clouds, with possible showers, is noted on satellite imagery
affecting roughly the waters N of 22N between 50W and 60W. This
cloudiness is ahead of a short-wave trough extending along
60W/61W. Farther east, a weak cold front enters the forecast
region near 31N22W and continues SW to near 23N31W where it
becomes stationary to near 18N45W. A few showers are along the
frontal boundary but mainly N of 26N. Mainly moderate SW winds
are ahead of the front while light to gentle NW winds follow the
front. Gentle to moderate trades are noted across the tropical
Atlantic with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Northwesterly swell is producing
seas of 6 to 9 ft across the waters N of 27N between 35W and
53W. Seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate most the western Atlantic waters
E of the Bahamas. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are across the NE Caribbean
passages.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned low will drift
E and gradually weaken, and move E of 55W Sat. High pressure
will then build modestly westward along 27N through the weekend.
Fresh southerly winds will develop east of northern Florida
tonight through Sat. Deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda
will increase winds and generate large northerly swell north of
28N and east of 60W this evening through Sat. Looking ahead, a
strong cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on
Mon, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front
beginning on Sun to the N of 25N.

$$
GR
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