[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271651
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1635 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to
00N35W to NE Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are observed south of 04N and west of 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a stationary front is draped just north of the NE
Gulf coast to a 1010 mb low pressure over SE Louisiana and a cold
front extends southwestward over the NW Gulf to southern Texas.
Numerous showers and strong thunderstorms are found within 90 nm
ahead of the frontal boundary, especially north of 27N. The
strongest storms are producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds and heavy downpours, which may reduce visibility below 1 nm.
Mariners are asked to use caution.

No deep convection is present in the rest of the basin. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds are noted in the eastern half of the
Gulf, especially between 85W and 93W. Seas in these waters are 3-6
ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.
Satellite imagery depict smoke and haze over the Gulf of Honduras
and the southern Gulf of Mexico associated with agricultural fires
in SE Mexico and Central America.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure extends weakly across Florida
and into the eastern Gulf this morning. A stationary front along
the N Gulf coasts has drifted SE across the Texas and Louisiana
coastal waters, and will shift slowly SE and reach from the
western Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche by Fri
afternoon. Ahead of the front, fresh to locally strong winds will
pulse near and north of the Yucatan Peninsula the next few
evenings. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the
northwestern and west-central Gulf Sat afternoon, then move
eastward through early next week. This will result in fresh to
strong NW winds, reaching locally near gale-force, across the
western Gulf this weekend. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front early next
week. Hazy conditions generated by agricultural fire in Mexico
will linger across the west-central and central Gulf, and Bay of
Campeche through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

No deep convection is noted in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally
strong SE winds are found in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly west of
84W, along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and 2-5 ft seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean
will continue through this weekend as Atlantic high pressure
extends across N Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are also expected offshore
of Colombia most of this week. Moderate to occasional fresh trades
are anticipated for the rest of the basin S of 16N. A cold front
is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun and reach from western
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Mon morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 26N62W to near the northern coast of
Hispaniola. Divergence aloft is generating showers north of 23N
and between 55W and 64W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-7
ft prevail in the waters west of 55W.

Farther east, a weak cold front extends from 31N23W to 23N32W,
where it transitions into a stationary front to 19N44W. A few
showers are noted near the frontal boundary. Moderate to locally
fresh westerly winds are evident on recent scatterometer satellite
data north of 27N and between 28W and 53W. Northwesterly swell is
producing seas of 6-9 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic
is dominated by a broad weak subtropical ridge, sustaining
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, an inverted surface trough along
67W and N of 22N is interrupting Atlantic high pressure this
morning. The trough will drift E and gradually dissipate through
tonight. High pressure will then build modestly westward along 27N
through the weekend. Fresh southerly winds and slightly higher
seas will develop east of northern Florida today through Sat. A
deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will increase winds
and generate large northerly swell north of 28N and east of 60W
this evening through Sat. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is
forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon, with fresh to
strong southerly winds and building seas ahead of the front to the
N of 25N.

$$
DELGADO/COLLADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net