[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270903
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Apr 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 11N16W to 03S40W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of
05N and E of 13W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
the equator to 10N between 20W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting a
localized area of moderate to fresh SE winds in the Yucatan
Channel and north of the Peninsula, where seas are 3-5 ft.
Elsewhere, gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near
and north of the Yucatan Peninsula the next few evenings. A strong
cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern and west-central
Gulf Sat afternoon, then move eastward through early next week.
This will result in fresh to strong winds, reaching locally near-
gale, winds across the western Gulf this weekend. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are forecast over the eastern Gulf early next
week. Hazy conditions generated by agricultural fire in Mexico
will linger across the west-central and central Gulf, and Bay of
Campeche today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing mainly
gentle easterly winds, except for fresh to strong E-SE winds in
the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel, and moderate to fresh NE
winds along the coast of Colombia. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft
across the basin, except 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and
off the coast of Colombia. Northerly swell of 2-4 ft is
propagating through the Mona and Anegada Passages.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean
will continue through this weekend. Fresh to locally strong
easterly winds are also expected offshore of Colombia most of this
week. Moderate to occasional fresh trades are anticipated for the
rest of the basin. Gentle to moderate seas will prevail across
the entire basin through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N24W to 19N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the vicinity of the front. Moderate winds
and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted N of 28N W of the front to 60W.
High pressure, and light to gentle winds, generally prevails
elsewhere over the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N. Seas
over this area are in the 4-6 ft range. S of 20N, gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the
area through the upcoming weekend. Fresh southerly winds and
slightly higher seas will develop east of northern Florida today
through Sat. A deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will
increase winds and generate a large northerly swell north of 28N
and east of 60W this evening through Sat. Looking ahead, strong
cold front is is forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon,
with fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas north of
25N.

$$
AL
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