[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward through early
next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately
behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching
the Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds
and strong thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf
ahead of the front. Seas are forecast to build up to 12 or 13 ft
with the strongest winds in the wake of the front.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf of Honduras
is severely restricting visibilities to 1 nm or less. Observations
from Roatan, La Cieba, and Tela have all been reporting low
visibilities today. Mariners are urged to exercise caution if
traversing the Gulf of Honduras. The smoke has been transported
over the waters by fresh SE winds. Dense smoke and reduced
visibilities are expected to continue through the weekend.

Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more
information.

Of note: Fires burned off and on throughout southern Mexico and
central America in April and early May, during the regions annual
dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke. The smoke mixed with the
haze to create a smoky atmosphere. During this time of the year,
we can see dense smoke potentially affecting mariners, especially
in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Gulf
of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N11W then continues SW to near 04N18W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N18W to 02S44W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong
convection are noted from 02N to 06N between 07W and 11W. This
convective activity extends inland over parts of Liberia. Similar
convection is also seen from the Equator to 04N between 26W and
40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see
the Special Features section for more information.

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W
across the NW Gulf to near Galveston, Texas. A 1008 mb low is
analyzed over the SW Gulf, with a surface trough extending NE to
near 26N90W. Scatterometer data indicate an area of fresh to
strong SE to S winds on the E side of the trough covering the
waters from 23N to 26N between 85W and 90W. Mainly moderate to
fresh southerly winds dominate most of the remainder of the
eastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle
winds are over the western Gulf. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft.

Satellite imagery shows smoke and haze over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico, including the eastern Bay of Campeche, associated with
agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America. Visibility
may be reduced over these waters. Late this afternoon, showers
and thunderstorms have flared-up over parts of the Yucatan
Peninsula and Guatemala.

For the forecast, the stationary front over the NW Gulf will
weaken tonight. A strong cold front will enter the northwestern
Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward through early next week.
Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the
front across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching the
Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds and
strong thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of
the front. Hazy conditions generated by agricultural fires in
Mexico will linger across the central Gulf and Bay of Campeche
tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense
Smoke in the Gulf of Honduras.

The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations
of gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin with the
exception of mainly fresh E to SE winds over the NW Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Channel. Seas are
generally in the 3 to 5 ft range, except 5 to 7 ft W of 85W.
No deep convection is noted in the Caribbean Sea.

Visible satellite imagery indicates smoke and haze over the Gulf
of Honduras due to agricultural fires in Central America. This
may reduce the visibility over the waters described and mariners
are asked to use caution.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds over the NW
Caribbean will continue through this weekend and transport dense
smoke from agricultural fires across the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh
to locally strong easterly winds are also expected offshore of
Colombia most of this week. Moderate to occasional fresh trades
are anticipated for the rest of the basin S of 16N. A cold front
is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun, and reach from west
central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras by Mon evening,
where it will stall and dissipate on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N51W and extends SW
to near 28N60W. Fresh SW winds are ahead of the front mainly N
of 28N E of front to about 49W while gentle to moderate winds
follow the front. An area of showers and thunderstorms is E of
the front near 30N48W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast
region is under the influence of high pressure, with a 1018 mb
center near 25N43W and a second center of 1020 mb near 26N29W.
Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high pressure
centers, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the
discussion waters. The most recent scatterometer data indicate
fresh to strong S winds over the western Atlantic, particularly
N of 28N and W of 75W, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Similar sea
heights are also observed N of 24N E of 50W based on altimeter
data. Abundant cloudiness, with possible showers, is noted E of
a line from 31N40W to 18N48W to about 30W. These clouds are ahead
of an upper-level trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central
Atlantic will build westward along 27N through the weekend. Fresh
southwesterly winds will prevail east of northern Florida through
tonight. Deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will increase
winds and generate large northerly swell north of 28N and east
of 60W through Sat. A strong cold front is forecast to move off
the US east coast on Mon, with strong southerly winds developing
early Sun ahead of the front to the N of 25N and W of 75W.

$$
GR
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