[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252257
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Apr 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2220 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 04.5N23W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to the NE coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted off Africa to the
S of 06.5N between 05W and 23W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 04N to 06N between 42W and coastal zones of the Amazon
River Basin, and S of 12N between 58W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front has sagged southward this afternoon, and
extends from the Florida Big Bend to 27N91W to SE Texas. along
28N. A low level trough persists across SW portions from the upper
Mexican coast to near Veracruz, Mexico. Another trough is located
over the Bay of Campeche along the W coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. No significant convection is occurring with these
troughs. The pressure gradient between the front and high
pressure to the north of producing a zone of moderate ESE winds
along the boundary to the W of 91W. Seas across this area are 5 to
7 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, winds are less than 15 kt, with
seas 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will change little
tonight, then lift north of the area as a warm front Wed. Fresh
to strong east winds along and just offshore the northern Yucatan
Peninsula will develop at night through Thu night. A cold front
will move over the NW Gulf Thu, then reach from the NE Gulf to
west-central Gulf Fri and begin to dissipate afterward as it
reaches from central Florida to the central Gulf on Sat. Fresh to
locally strong southwest winds are expected ahead of it over the
north-central and NE waters. A stronger cold front is expected to
enter the NW Gulf early Sat, and reach from the Florida panhandle
to the Yucatan Peninsula by Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds
will follow the front, with winds possibly reaching to near gale-
force in the far west-central Gulf and in the far SW Gulf late
Sat into Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing generally
light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate to locally fresh
winds in the Gulf of Honduras and along the coast of Colombia.
Seas are generally 2 to 3 ft across the basin, except for 3-4
along the coast of NW Colombia, and 3 to 5 ft across the Gulf of
Honduras.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will
expand northward from the Gulf of Honduras toward the northeast
Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel starting tonight. Fresh to
strong east to southeast winds will be just offshore the
northeast coast of Honduras Wed night into early this weekend.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are forecast for offshore
Colombia pulsing nightly Wed into this weekend. Otherwise, a
weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in
relatively quiet marine conditions through Thu. Trade winds
increase Fri into the weekend as high pressure strengthens north
of the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the western Atlantic extending from
near 31N79W to N Florida near 30N81W. Scattered moderate
convection has developed between the front and 27N between 74W and
coastal counties of central Florida. A 1019 mb surface high is
analyzed to the east of the front near 29.5N67W, with a ridge
extending southeastward to near 50W. Gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds are over the waters west of 70W. Seas W of 70W are
4 to 5 ft in NE swell. To the E, a dissipating stationary front
extends from near 31N30W to near 21N52W, then continues as a
dissipating shearline to near 24N73W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are evident within 270 nm east of the front mainly
N of 23N. Fresh southwest winds and seas of 6-8 ft are east of the
front E of 40W. A 90 to 120 nm wide band of fresh easterly winds
persists N of the shearline between 55W and 72W. Elsewhere
moderate to fresh NW winds are found N of 26N between the front
and 55W. Large northerly swell generated across the North Atlantic
continues to build across the regional waters, producing seas of 6
to 9 ft to the N of 20N. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic
is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the eastern
Atlantic producing gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of
about 4-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the W Atlantic frontal boundary is
forecast to lift northward in the next few days as a warm front.
Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected to develop
offshore northern Florida beginning late this week in advance of
an approaching cold front. This next cold front is expected to
approach the southeastern U.S. coast Sat and Sat night. Finally, a
strengthening low pressure over the central Atlantic will produce
fresh to strong winds in the NE offshore waters Fri into Sat.
Seas will build to near 14 ft by Sat.

$$
Stripling
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