[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251659
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N12W to 02N24W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that
it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 02S40W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-07N and E of
25W, while scattered moderate convection prevails S of 04N and W
of 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends along 28N. A surface trough is
analyzed ahead of the front over Central Florida. Another trough
is located over the Bay of Campeche along 92W. No significant
convection is occurring with these troughs. Latest ASCAT data
pass depicts fresh northeast winds over the northern Gulf as well
as over the northern part of the central Gulf, or roughly north
of 25N and east of 95W. Winds elsewhere west of 90W are gentle to
moderate and northeast in direction. Light and variable winds are
south of 25N and east of 90W. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NE Gulf and
5-7 ft in the NW Gulf due to a longer fetch there. Seas elsewhere
are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will change little today,
then transition to a warm front on Wed and lift north of the area.
Fresh to strong east winds along and just offshore the northern
Yucatan Peninsula will develop at night through Thu night. A cold
front will move over the NW Gulf Thu, then reach from the NE Gulf
to west-central Gulf Fri and begin to dissipate afterward as it
reaches from central Florida to the central Gulf on Sat. Moderate
to fresh southwest winds are expected ahead of it over the north-
central and NE waters. A stronger cold front is expected to enter
the NW Gulf early Sat, and reach from the Florida panhandle to the
Yucatan Peninsula by late Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds
will follow the front, with winds possibly reaching to near gale-
force in the far west-central Gulf Sat and in the far SW Gulf late
Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing generally
light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate to fresh
southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are generally
slight across the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will
expand northward from the Gulf of Honduras toward the northeast
Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel starting tonight. Fresh to
strong east to southeast winds will be just offshore the northeast
coast of Honduras Wed into early this weekend. Otherwise, a weak
pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in
relatively quiet marine conditions through Thu. Trade winds
increase afterwards across most of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the western Atlantic extending from
near 31N79W to 30N81W. Areas of rain are present in the vicinity
of the front mainly N of 27N west of 70W. A 1019 mb surface high
is analyzed to the east of the front near 30N67W, with a ridge
extending southeastward to near 50W. Gentle to moderate east
winds are over the waters west of 55W, except for a swath of
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds located form 22N to 25N
between 53W-68W. Seas over these waters are 4-5 ft, except for
slightly higher seas of 5-7 ft N of 25N between 39W-56W.

To the E, a stationary front extends from near 31N31W to 22N45W,
where it transitions to a trough that continues to 21N55W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident within 300 nm east
of the front mainly N of 23N. Fresh southwest winds and seas of
6-8 ft are east of the front and trough. The remainder of the
tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over
the eastern Atlantic producing gentle to moderate trade winds and
seas of about 4-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the W Atlantic frontal boundary is
forecast to lift northward in the next few days as a warm front.
Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected to develop
offshore northern Florida beginning late this week in advance of
an approaching cold front. This next cold front is expected to
approach the southeastern U.S. coast on Sat. A strengthening low
pressure over the central Atlantic will produce fresh to strong
winds in our northeast waters Fri into Sat. Seas will build to 14
ft by Sat.

$$
ERA
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