[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Apr 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 04N34W. The ITCZ continues from 04N34W to the equator
at 38W. Numerous moderate with scattered strong convection is
observed south of the monsoon trough and near the coast of
Africa from 01N to 10N between 09W and 14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between high pressure over the southern US and
lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate easterly winds
in the NE Gulf with gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft in
the NE Gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong east winds along and just
offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula will develop at night
through Fri night. A cold front will move over the NW Gulf Thu,
then reach from the NE Gulf to west-central Gulf Fri and begin
to dissipate afterward as it reaches from central Florida to the
central Gulf on Sat. Fresh to locally strong southwest winds are
expected ahead of it over the north-central and NE waters. A
stronger cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Sat,
and reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by
Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front, with
winds possibly reaching to near gale-force in the far west-
central Gulf and in the far SW Gulf late Sat into Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing generally
light to gentle easterly winds, except for moderate easterlies
in the Gulf of Honduras fresh NE winds along the coast of
Colombia. Seas are generally 1-3 ft across the basin, except for
3-4 along the coast of NW Colombia. 3-4 ft northerly swell from
the Atlantic is propagating through the Mona and Anegada
Passages.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will
expand northward from the Gulf of Honduras toward the northeast
Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel starting tonight. Fresh to
strong east to southeast winds will be just offshore the
northeast coast of Honduras Wed night into early this weekend.
Fresh to strong northeast winds are forecast for offshore
Colombia pulsing nightly Wed into this weekend. Otherwise, a
weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in
relatively quiet marine conditions through Thu. Trade winds
increase afterwards across most of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the western subtropical Atlantic
extending from 31N77W to N Florida near 31N81W. A surface trough
is analyzed south of the front from 30N77W to 27N80W. Scattered
moderate convection associated with the trough is observed from
25N to 28N between 77W and 80W. Outside of thunderstorms, winds
are gentle to moderate from the east with 3-5 ft seas in the
area. A 1020 mb high is analyzed east of the front, centered
near 30N64W. Winds are gentle near the high, gradually
increasing to moderate easterlies north of a shearline along
22N. Winds are gentle south of the shearline. Seas are generally
5-7 ft between 60W and 75W. A stationary front persists in the
east-central Atlantic from 31N30W to 21N52W. Northwest of the
front winds are moderate to fresh from the W-NW, with stronger
winds in the Ocean Prediction Center area north of 31N.
Southeast of the front, winds are moderate to fresh from the SW.
Large northerly swell generated across the North Atlantic
continues to build, producing seas of 6-10 ft north of 20N. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic producing gentle to
moderate trade winds and seas of about 4-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak stationary front that
extends from offshore northeast Florida to inland northern
Florida will lift northward as warm front on Wed. Fresh to
locally strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore
northern Florida beginning late this week in advance of an
approaching cold front. This next cold front is expected to
approach the southeastern U.S. coast Sat and Sat night. Finally,
a strengthening low pressure over the central Atlantic will
produce fresh to strong winds in our northeast waters Fri into
Sat. Seas will build to near 14 ft by Sat.

$$
Flynn
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