[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212157
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 02N25W. The ITCZ
continues from 02N25W to 02S40W. No significant convection is
evident at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms
over the north-central Gulf currently, mainly near 25N90W.
Surface ridging that had extended over the northern Gulf is
shifting eastward, ahead of a cold front moving into coastal Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. The weakened gradient is
supporting gentle to moderate SE winds across the Gulf. Combined
seas are 4 to 6 ft west of 90W and 2 to 4 ft east of 90W. Areas of
smoke from agricultural fires is limiting visibility over much of
the western Gulf south of 25N.

For the forecast, fresh to strong east winds will develop along
and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night Sun and
Tue. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight into early Sat.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will develop behind the front on
Sat. The dissipating front will extend from southwestern Florida
to near the Texas-Mexico border by early Sun. Fresh to strong E to
SE to E winds are expected on Sun through Mon over most of the
western and central Gulf. Agricultural fires over Mexico and
Central America may result in smoke and haze over the the SW Gulf
and the Bay Campeche through at least Sat. Mariners may experience
reduced visibility over these waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite derived wind data showed moderate to fresh SE winds
south of 18N and west of 85W, funneling along the terrain over
northern Honduras. Elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean
relatively weak pressure gradient is allowing light to gentle SE
breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas. Areas of smoke and haze due to
agricultural fires cover the waters west of 85W. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas are noted over
the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters
will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough northeast of the Bahamas is supporting moderate E
winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas north of 27N west of 60W, and
light breezes and 3 to 4 ft combined seas south of 27N west of
60W. A cold front reaches from 31N52W to 27N60W. This had
displaced the subtropical ridge a little farther south, now
anchored by relatively weak 1019 mb high pressure centered near
24N42W. This pattern is supporting light breezes from 20N to 25N
east of 60W, moderate to fresh W winds north of 20N and east of
the front, and moderate trade winds farther south. Combined seas
are 4 to 6 ft across the region.

For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure will develop tonight
east of the Bahamas, then will drift southward through Sun. A
tight pressure gradient will develop between high pressure to the
north and the low. The tightening pressure gradient will increase
trade winds to fresh to strong speeds between Bermuda and the
Bahamas tonight through late Sat night, with seas building to
about 8 ft. Seas will subside late Sat night. A weak cold front is
expected to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sat night,
then dissipate north of the Bahamas by Mon. Moderate north swell
is forecast to impact the northern waters east of 60W beginning on
Sat.

$$
Christensen
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