[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211705
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Apr 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near
12N16W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from there to 00N33W, where
it is interrupted by a trough extending from 01S34W to 04S33W.
The ITCZ restarts near 02S36W to the coast of Brazil near
03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 08W
and east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging northeast of the Gulf of Mexico is forcing SE
winds across the Gulf that are generally gentle to moderate.
Seas are 3-5 ft in the central and W Gulf, and 2-3 ft in the E
Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong deep convection is
occurring north of 26N between 89W-94W in association with an
outflow boundary/surface trough that extends from the Louisiana
coast near 30N91W to the lower Texas coast 28N97W. Winds and
seas are higher near the active thunderstorm activity. The
diurnal Yucatan surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 23N91W
to 18N96W.

For the forecast, high pressure along the southeastern U.S.
seaboard will continue to support moderate to fresh southeast to
south return flow over the Gulf of Mexico today. Fresh to strong
east winds will develop along and just offshore the northern
Yucatan Peninsula at night Sun and Tue. A cold front will enter
the NW Gulf tonight into early Sat. Moderate to fresh N to NE
winds will follow in behind the front on Sat. The dissipating
front will extend from southwestern Florida to near the Texas-
Mexico border by early Sun. Fresh to strong E to SE to E winds
are expected on Sun through Mon over most of the western and
central Gulf. Agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America
may result in smoke and haze over the the SW Gulf and the Bay
Campeche through at least Sat. Mariners may experience reduced
visibility over these waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough northeast of the Caribbean is weakening the
usual north-south pressure gradient across the Caribbean.  As a
result, the trades are only gentle to moderate across the whole
Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central Caribbean and 2-4
ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring today.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will
weaken today, diminishing trade winds over the Caribbean waters.
The weaker pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will
result in relatively quiet marine conditions through early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough northeast of the Bahamas extends from 30N69W to
24N71W.  Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 25N-30N
between 63W-68W. A cold front over the central Atlantic extends
from 31N52W to 27N60W, while a second cold front exists over the
E Atlantic from 31N18W to 29N30W. Winds - away any active
thunderstorms - are gentle to moderate with these features.
Surface ridging off of the Carolinas along with the trough is
promoting moderate to fresh E winds north of 27N west of 65W. A
1019 mb high pressure near 24N42W has surface ridging extending
to 27N15W to the east and to 25N55W to the west. Between 20N and
the ITCZ to the south, the trades are gentle to moderate with
winds light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft across our
Atlantic waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure is forecast to
develop by tonight east of the Bahamas. The low will drift
southward through Sun. A tight pressure gradient will develop
between high pressure to the north and the low. The tightening
pressure gradient will increase trade winds to fresh to strong
speeds between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight through late Sat
night, with seas building to about 8 ft. Seas will subside late
Sat night. A weak cold front is expected to move off the coast
of northeast Florida Sat night, then dissipate north of the
Bahamas by Mon. Moderate north swell is forecast to impact the
northern waters east of 60W beginning on Sat.

$$
Landsea
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