[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 01N30W to 01N40W to
the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. No significant convection is
evident at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A squall line is moving eastward across the Gulf and currently
stretches from the NE Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula. The squall
line is weakening, but fresh to strong gusty winds may be ahead
of the boundary. Heavy downpours from this feature may lower
visibility. Surface ridging continues to shift eastward ahead of
a cold front moving into coastal Texas and the lower Mississippi
Valley. The weakened gradient supports gentle to moderate E
winds over the western Gulf and Florida Straits. Moderate to
fresh SE winds are noted in the NE Gulf from a recent satellite
scatterometer pass. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft west of 90W and
2 to 4 ft east of 90W. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires is
limiting visibility over much of the western Gulf south of 25N.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf late
tonight into early Sat. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will
develop behind the front on Sat. The dissipating front will extend
from southwestern Florida to near the Texas-Mexico border by
early Sun. Fresh to strong E to SE to E winds are expected on Sun
through Mon over most of the western and central Gulf. Fresh to
strong east winds will develop along and just offshore the
northern Yucatan Peninsula at night Sun and Tue. Agricultural
fires over Mexico and Central America may result in smoke and haze
over the SW Gulf and the Bay Campeche through at least Sat.
Mariners may experience reduced visibility over these waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite-derived wind data shows trade winds of moderate speeds
of less across most of the basin. The exception is an area of
moderate to fresh ESE winds south of 18N and west of 85W,
funneling along the terrain over northern Honduras. Areas of
smoke and haze due to agricultural fires cover the waters west
of 85W. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in the central Caribbean
between 70W and 80W, with 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere. Calm seas
are noted in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean
waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough east of the Bahamas is supporting moderate to
fresh E-NE winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas north of 26N west
of 65W. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to 4 ft combined seas are
elsewhere west of 65W. A forming cold front reaches from 31N45W
to 27N54W, bringing fresh NW winds west of the boundary to 65W,
shifting to W-SW ahead of the front north of 27N and west of
40W. Seas range from 6 to 8 ft in the vicinity of the fresh
winds. This had displaced the subtropical ridge a little farther
south, now anchored by relatively weak 1017 mb high pressure
centered near 22N34W. Light to gentle breezes are north of 15N
with 4 to 5 ft seas, except in the area of the front. Moderate
to fresh trades are south of 15N with 5 to 7 ft seas

For the forecast west of 55W, weak low pressure will develop
early on Sat east of the Bahamas, then will drift southward
through Sun. A tight pressure gradient will develop between high
pressure to the north and the low. The tightening pressure
gradient will increase trade winds to fresh to strong speeds
between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight through late Sat night,
with seas building to about 8 ft. Seas will subside late Sat
night. A weak cold front is expected to move off the coast of
northeast Florida Sat night, then dissipate north of the Bahamas
by Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to develop
offshore northern and central Florida during the middle of next
week in advance of low pressure that will track northeastward
along the southeastern U.S. coast. Seas will build with the
fresh to strong winds. Moderate north swell is forecast to
impact the northern waters east of 60W on Sat. The swell will
shift east of 55W late Sun into Mon.

$$
Mora
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