[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 06 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal plains
of Guinea, to 04N20W, 03N22W, 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from
03N24W, to 02N38W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 08N southward from 30W eastward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from the Equator southward between
34W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A slowly-moving cold front passes through SW Louisiana to
the coastal plains of Mexico near 22N98W, a little bit to
the SW of Tampico in Mexico. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 22N northward.
Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in Texas
from 100W eastward. More widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong precipitation is in Louisiana, moving
toward the N and NE.

Moderate to fresh E-to-SE winds, and seas heights that range
from 5 feet to 8 feet, are in the southern and southwestern
sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds,
and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are in the
western, the north central, and the southeastern sections
of the area. Gentle to moderate E-to-SE winds, and sea heights
that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are in the rest of the Gulf.

A cold front over the western Gulf extends from SW Louisiana
to inland extreme northeastern Mexico. Moderate to fresh
northeast winds are behind the front. The front will stall
this morning and linger over the NW Gulf through Fri night.
Winds behind the front will increase to fresh to strong over
some of the waters. Weak low pressure is forecast to develop
along the frontal boundary over the NW Gulf on Fri and
gradually shift east-northeastward. Northerly flow behind
the low will push the front east-southeastward across the
northern and central Gulf through late Sat. The front is
expected to stall over the southeast and south-central Gulf
Sun and into next week. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected with the front. Fresh to strong
winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan
Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche this morning and again
tonight into early Fri morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between
50W and 80W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 14N in the Caribbean Sea northward
between 50W in the Atlantic Ocean and 70W in the Caribbean
Sea, and in Hispaniola. Strong winds are within 180 nm of
Puerto Rico in the eastern semicircle, in the areas of
precipitation.

Fresh to strong NE-to-E winds, and sea heights that range
from 8 feet to 10 feet, are in the south central Caribbean
Sea. Strong to near gale-force E-to-SE winds, and sea
heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet, are in the Gulf
of Honduras. Moderate to fresh NE-to-E trade winds are in
the rest of the central section and in the eastern one-third
of the area. Fresh to strong E-to-SE winds are in the western
half of the area. The sea heights range from 5 feet to
7 feet in the north central and western sections. Mostly
moderate NE-to-E winds, and sea heights that range from
4 feet to 6 feet, are in the remainder of the area.

The pressure gradient between a ridge extending across
the western Atlantic Ocean and the Colombian low will
support fresh to strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean through tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the
Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras will
diminish Fri. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east
winds will pulse tonight in the lee of Cuba. Expect
increasing winds and building seas across the waters
E of the Lesser Antilles beginning tonight as a broad
inverted trough moves westward across the Atlantic
just north of the islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between
50W and 80W. Multiple individual upper level cyclonic
circulation centers are in the area of broad upper level
cyclonic wind flow, mostly between 60W and 70W. An
inverted surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean along 57W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 14N in the Caribbean Sea to 30N in the Atlantic
Ocean between 50W and 70W, and in Hispaniola. The 57W
surface trough is moving through broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow in the Atlantic Ocean.

Gentle to moderate E winds, and sea heights that range
from 2 feet to 4 feet, are from 23N northward from 55W
westward. Moderate to fresh NE-to-E trade winds, and
sea heights that range from 7 feet to 10 feet, are within
1100 nm to the ESE of the 57W surface trough. The swell
is from the NE-to-E, from 10N northward from 60W eastward.
including in the Canary and in the Cabo Verde Islands.
Gentle to moderate, with locally fresh NE-to-ENE trade
winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet,
are from 23N southward between 55W and the southeastern
Bahamas and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal
winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet in
a moderate N swell, cover the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean.

A high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will
continue to support fresh to strong winds between Hispaniola
and Turks and Caicos Islands through this evening. A broad
57W inverted trough will shift westward through Sat, reaching
the southeastern Bahamas. This feature will enhance winds and
seas east of the Bahamas through the end of the week as it
interacts with high pressure north of the area. A cold front
will move to just offshore NE Florida on Sat, bringing strong
to gale-force northerly winds and a significant swell event
from Sun night into Mon.

$$
mt/gr
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