[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Apr 06 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between
the Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over northern
Colombia will support northeast to east near-gale to gale-force
winds within 90 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla, Colombia
until about 12Z this morning. Seas will be in the 9-12 ft range
with the gale-force winds. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Senegal-
Gambia border and curves southwestward to 10N21W. Increasing
numerous scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
south of the trough from the Equator to 07N between 18W-20W, and
from 04N to 08N between 20W-29W. There is no ITCZ present north
of the Equator based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow-moving cold front extends from near the Texas-Louisiana
border to near the Texas-Mexico border then continues as a warm
front to a 1007 mb low over northeastern Mexico. Patchy showers
are occurring along and up to 50 nm northwest of this boundary.
Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and seas of 5-8 ft per
latest altimeter data are over the southern Gulf and eastern Bay
of Campeche. Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds with 5-7 ft
seas are over the western, north-central and southeastern Gulf.
Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and seas of 3-5 ft are
over the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front over the western
Gulf extends from southwestern Louisiana to inland extreme
northeastern Mexico. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are behind
the front. The front will stall this morning and linger over the
NW Gulf through Fri night. Winds behind the front will increase to
fresh to strong over some of the waters. Weak low pressure is
forecast to develop along the frontal boundary over the NW Gulf on
Fri and gradually shift east-northeastward. Northerly flow behind
the low will push the front east-southeastward across the
northern and central Gulf through late Sat. The front is expected
to stall over the southeast and south-central Gulf Sun and into
next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected with the front. Fresh to strong winds are expected to
pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche
this morning and again tonight into early Fri morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a
soon to end Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

A surface trough induced by a low-level disturbance is causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Dominican
Republic and near Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Otherwise,
a relatively fair trade- wind pattern continues elsewhere in the
basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong northeast to
east wind and seas of 8-10 ft are over the south-central part
of the basin. Strong to near-gale force east to southeast winds
along with seas of 7-9 ft seas are over the Gulf of Honduras.
Moderate to fresh northeast to east trade winds are over the
central and eastern sections of the sea, while fresh to strong
east to southeast winds are over the western half of the basin.
Seas of 5-7 ft are over the north-central and western sections of
the basin. Mostly moderate northeast to eats winds and seas of
4-6 ft seas are over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge extending
across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Thu
night. Minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia will
diminish to just below gale-force early this morning. Fresh to
strong winds in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras
will diminish Fri. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds
will pulse tonight in the lee of Cuba. Expect increasing winds
and building seas across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles
beginning Thu night as a broad inverted trough moves westward
across the Atlantic just north of the islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Supported by a rather vigorous upper-level low near 27N64W, a
broad inverted trough along a position from 30N55W to 21N56W is
triggering scattered moderate convection from 21N to 30N between
the trough and 59W. Convergent trade winds are generating similar
convection from the Equator to 06N between 29W-36W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

A 1029 mb Bermuda High is maintaining gentle to moderate easterly
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 23N between 55W and the
Florida-Georgia coast. To the east, moderate to fresh northeast
to east trade winds along with seas of 7-10 ft due to a northeast
to east swell are north of 10N between the African coast and 60W,
including the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. Farther to the
southwest, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE trades
and seas of 5-7 ft exist from the Equator to 23N and between 55W
and the southeastern Bahamas and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle
monsoonal winds along with seas of 4-7 ft seas due to a moderate
north swell remain elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a high pressure ridge across the
western Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong winds
between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos Islands through this
evening. A broad inverted trough, with axis currently near 56W,
will shift westward through Sat reaching the southeastern Bahamas.
This feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas
through the end of the week as it interacts with high pressure
north of the area. A cold front will move to just offshore NE
Florida on Sat, bringing strong to near gale- force northerly
winds and a significant swell event from Sun night into Mon.

$$
Aguirre
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