[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Apr 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between
the Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over northern
Colombia will support NE to ENE near-gale to gale winds overnight
tonight within 90 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla,
Colombia. Seas will peak at 10 to 11 ft in the strongest winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Senegal-Gambia
border and curves southwestward to 10N21W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring south of the trough from
the Equator to 07N between 11W and 25W. There is no ITCZ present
north of the Equator based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow-moving cold front extends from near the Texas-Louisiana
border to near the Texas-Mexico border then continues as a warm
front to a 1007 mb low over northeastern Mexico. Patchy showers
are occurring along and up to 50 nm northwest of this boundary.
Fresh to strong ESE to SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft seas are
present at the south Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to
fresh southeasterly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are found across the
western, north-central and southeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E
to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at
night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche through
Thu. Fresh to locally strong winds are briefly expected in the
wake of the frontal boundary tonight. The front will stall by
early Thu and linger over the northwestern Gulf through Fri
night. Weak low pressure currently over northeastern Mexico is
forecast to gradually shift east-northeastward. Northerly flow
behind the low will push the front east-southeastward across the
northern and central Gulf through late Sat. The front is expected
to stall over the southeastern and south-central Gulf Sun and
early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected with the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on an
ongoing Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

A trade-wind disturbance is causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic and near Puerto Rico
and the Leeward Islands. Otherwise, a relatively fair trade-wind
pattern continues elsewhere in the basin. Outside the Gale Warning
area, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are
evident at the south-central basin. Strong to near-gale ESE winds
with 7 to 9 ft seas are found at the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to
fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft dominate the north-
central and western basin. Mostly moderate ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge extending
across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Thu
night. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Windward
Passage and Gulf of Honduras through Thu night. Fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds will pulse at night in the lee of Cuba
through Fri. Expect increasing winds and seas across the waters
east of the Lesser Antilles beginning Thu night as an inverted
trough moves westward across the Atlantic just north of the
islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Enhanced by an upper-level low near 27N64W, a broad inverted
trough is triggering scattered moderate convection from 21N to 29N
between 59W. Convergent trade winds are generating similar
convection from the Equator to 06N between 23W and 36W. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

A 1031 mb Bermuda High is maintaining gentle to moderate easterly
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 23N between 55W and the
Florida-Georgia coast. To the east, moderate to fresh NNE to E
trades with 7 to 10 ft seas in NE to E swell are present north of
10N between the African coast and 60W, including the Canary and
Cabo Verde Islands. Farther southwest, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist from
the Equator to 23N/10N between 55W and the southeast
Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds with 4 to
7 ft seas in moderate N swell prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a ridge across the northwestern
Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong winds between
Hispaniola and Turks/Caicos Islands through Thu evening. A broad
inverted trough, with axis currently near 55W, will shift westward
through Sat reaching the southeastern Bahamas. This feature will
enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas through the end of the
week. A cold front will move to just offshore of northeast
Florida on Sat, bringing strong to near gale-force northerly
winds and significant swell from Sun night into Mon.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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