[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052221
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Apr 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between
the Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over northern
Colombia will support NE to ENE near-gale to gale winds once
again tonight within 90 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla,
Colombia. Seas will reach a range of 10-11 ft in the strongest
winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 13N17W to
10N25W. No significant convection is noted in the vicinity of
this feature at this time. However, isolated moderate convection
prevails south of 06N and east of 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow-moving cold front is located over east Texas, just inland
from coast of Texas. Ahead of the front, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted in the NW Gulf of Mexico, north
of 27N and west of 93W. Surface ridging prevails across the NE
Gulf. Recent buoys are observing fresh southeasterly winds and
seas of 7-10 ft across most of the western Gulf. Strong E winds
and seas to 6 ft are likely occurring off the N coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds with 3 to 6
ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at
night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche through
Thu. Fresh southerly winds across the western Gulf waters will
diminish by this evening when a cold front is forecast to enter
the NW Gulf. Fresh to locally strong winds are briefly expected in
the wake of the front through tonight. The front will meander
over the NW Gulf through Fri. Then, a weak low is forecast to
develop along the frontal boundary over the NW Gulf on Sat,
allowing the front to move some across the western Gulf. The front
will stall again over the west-central Gulf on Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on an
ongoing Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted north of 15N and east
of 73W, including over portions of Hispaniola due to an upper-
level trough in the area. Strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 7-10
ft are over the south-central section of the basin. Fresh trades
and seas 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere over the central Caribbean.
Strong to near-gale ESE winds along with seas of 6-8 ft are in
the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong NE winds with seas near 7 ft
are over the Windward Passage. Moderate southeast winds and seas
of 3-5 ft are over the northwestern part of the basin, over the
waters between Cuba and near Jamaica. Moderate to fresh northeast
winds and seas of 4-6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the
basin.

The pressure gradient between a ridge extending across the
western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support fresh to
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Thu night.
Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to minimal gale-force
tonight. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the
Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night.
Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse at
night in the lee of Cuba through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails across most of the basin, although a trio
of surface troughs in the central Atlantic are producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms from 17N to 30N between 51W and
66W.

Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas to 7 ft prevail just N of
Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades
prevail elsewhere through the Bahamas to north of Puerto Rico.
Gentle to moderate E winds are occurring north of 26N and west of
65W with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Seas in excess of 8 ft are found east
of 45W and north of 14N, where fresh NE winds are occurring.
Strong N winds and seas 10-12 ft are found from the Canary Islands
to the coast of Morocco. Elsewhere, between 45W and 60W, winds are
generally moderate to fresh with seas 6 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a ridge across the western Atlantic
will continue to support fresh to strong winds between Hispaniola
and Turks and Caicos Islands through Thu evening. Expect
increasing winds and building seas across the waters E of the
Lesser Antilles beginning Thu night as an inverted trough moves
westward across the Atlantic just north of the islands. The trough
will shift westward through Sat reaching the SE Bahamas. This
feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas through
the end of the week. A cold front will move off NE Florida by Sun
morning, bringing strong to near gale-force northerly winds and a
significant swell event by Sun night into Mon.

$$
Hagen
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