[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051710
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Apr 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between
the Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over northern
Colombia will support NE to ENE near-gale to gale winds once
again tonight within 90 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla,
Colombia. Seas will reach a range of 9-12 ft in the strongest
winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 13N17W to
10N27W. No significant convection is noted in the vicinity of
this feature at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin. Fresh to strong
southeasterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted over the
western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and waters off
northern Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds
with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at
night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche through
Thu. Fresh to strong return flow will continue across the western
Gulf waters today in advance of the next cold front. The front is
expected to move into the far NW Gulf this afternoon and stall,
where it will meander through Fri. The front will then weaken and
dissipate by Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on an
ongoing Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

An Atlantic surface ridge continues to support a relatively fair
trade wind regime across the basin. Outside the Gale Warning
area described above, strong to near-gale NE to ENE winds and
seas of 8-11 ft are over the south-central section of the basin.
Strong to near-gale ESE winds along with seas of 6-8 ft are in the
Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate east-southeast winds and
seas of 3-4 ft are over the northwestern part of the basin, over
the waters between Cuba and near Jamaica. Moderate to fresh
northeast winds and seas of 4-6 ft seas prevail across the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic
high pressure and a low pressure over northern Colombia will
support fresh to strong winds in the central and portions of the
SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia
will pulse to gale-force tonight. Fresh to strong winds are
expected to pulse in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of
Honduras through Thu. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
will pulse at night in the lee of Cuba through Fri. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will continue over the eastern Caribbean through
the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails across most of the basin. A surface
trough is analyzed from 24N60W to 18N60W with scattered moderate
convection between 57W-63W. Another trough is along 50W from
22N-28N with no significant convective activity.

Gentle to moderate to fresh east to southeast winds along with
seas of 4-7 ft are present north of 19N and between 55W and the
Georgia/Florida coast. Moderate to fresh northeast to east trade
winds and seas of 7-10 ft due to a decaying northerly swell are
north of 19N and between 35W-55W. Near the Canary Islands, fresh
to strong north to northeast trades and seas of 9-11 ft due to a
large northerly swell are located north of 18N between the
African coast and 35W. To the south, moderate to locally fresh
northeast to east trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft are from 03N to
18N and between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle
monsoonal winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere in the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure over the area will
continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N
and to the east of the approaches to the Windward Passage. Fresh
to strong winds will continue between Hispaniola and Turks and
Caicos Islands through Thu evening. A broad inverted trough is
expected to develop near 55W tonight and shift westward through
Fri. This feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas
through the end of the week.

$$
ERA
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