[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Apr 05 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between
the Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over northern
Colombia will support NE to ENE near-gale to gale winds tonight
within 90 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla, Colombia. Seas
will reach a range of 9-12 ft in the strongest winds. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the Guinea-
Bissau coast near Bissau and extends southwestward across 05N22W
to the Equator at 28W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
south of the trough from 03N to 07N between 10W-19W. There is no
ITCZ present north of the Equator based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from central Florida to
near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds and seas
of 6-9 ft are noted over the western Gulf, including the Bay of
Campeche and waters off northern Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to
moderate ESE to SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest
of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at
night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche through
Thu. Fresh to strong return flow will prevail across the western
Gulf waters today in advance of the next cold front. The front is
expected to move into the far NW Gulf this afternoon and stall,
where it will meander through Fri. The front will then weaken and
dissipate by Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on an
ongoing Gale Warning.

An Atlantic ridge extending southwestward from a 1031 mb Azores
High continues to support a relatively fair trade wind regime
across the entire basin. Patchy trade-wind showers are seen near
the Leeward Islands. Outside the Gale Warning area described above,
strong to near-gale NE to ENE winds and seas of 8-11 ft are over
the south-central section of the basin. Strong to near-gale ESE
winds along with seas of 6-8 ft are in the Gulf of Honduras.
Gentle to moderate east to east-southeast winds and seas of
3-4 ft are over the northwestern part of the basin, namely
over the waters between Cuba and near Jamaica. Moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds and seas of 4-6 ft seas remain for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic
high pressure and relatively lower pressure over northern
Colombia will support fresh to near gale-force winds in the
central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds
near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight. Fresh
to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Windward Passage and
in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Moderate to fresh northeast
to east winds will pulse at night in the lee of Cuba through Fri.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue over the eastern
Caribbean through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough that is present just east of Bermuda is analyzed
north of the area from 33N63W southwestward to near 25N67W. Meanwhile,
a rather robust upper-level trough is in its vicinity. The
combination of these two features earlier resulted in an area of
numerous showers and thunderstorms from about 22N to 29N and
between 60W-69W. This activity, for the most part, has diminished
during the past few hours. Convergent trade winds are producing
mostly isolated moderate convection from the Equator to 03N
between 33W and the coast of Amapa State, Brazil. The exception
is a cluster of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
that is within 60 nm of 01N48W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Another trough is analyzed east to the east-northeast of the
Leeward Islands from 22N59W to 16N58W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms exist within 120 nm either side of this
trough from 18N to 20N. Yet another trough is over the central
Atlantic along 49W from 20N to 27N. Satellite imagery shows
no convection occurring with this trough as it is moving through
a rather stable surrounding environment.

Gentle to moderate to fresh east to southeast winds along with
seas of 4-7 ft are present north of 19N and between 55W and the
Georgia/Florida coast. Moderate to fresh northeast to east trade
winds and seas of 7-10 ft due to a decaying northerly swell are
north of 19N and between 35W-55W. Near the Canary Islands, fresh
to strong north to northeast trades and seas of 9-11 ft due to a
large northerly swell are located north of 18N between the African
coast and 35W. To the south, moderate to locally fresh northeast
to east trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft are from 03N to 18N/19N and
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal
winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure over the area continues
to support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N and to the
east of the approaches to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong
winds will continue between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos
through Thu evening. A broad inverted trough is expected to
develop near 55W tonight and shift westward through Fri. This
feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas through
the end of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to accompany this trough.

$$
Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net