[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 03N24W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N24W to 02N38W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted S of 08N and E of 26W, and S of 02N between 35W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure is centered over the NW Gulf, with the attendant
cold front extending from the low center to near Tuxpan, Mexico.
Moderate to fresh winds are found west of the front with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over much
of the Gulf, except 204 ft over the far NE Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will move slowly eastward over the
western half of the Gulf trough Sun. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds are expected in the wake of the low and front
through at least Fri. Another low pressure, forecast to develop
just off the SE of United States will allow a cold front to move
southward over Florida and the NE Gulf on Sun. Fresh to locally
strong E winds are expected behind the front. Fresh to strong
winds are forecast to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula
into the Bay of Campeche this morning and again tonight into early
Fri morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are found in the Windward Passage, south of
Hispaniola, over the Gulf of Honduras, and over the south central
Caribbean. Mainly moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the 7-8 ft range in the south central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the
north central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail in the
south- central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh to strong winds
in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish
Fri. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse
tonight in the lee of Cuba. Expect increasing winds and building
seas across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles beginning tonight
as a broad inverted trough moves westward across the Atlantic just
north of the islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N56W to 21N57W. High pressure
prevails elsewhere across the Atlantic discussion waters north of
20N. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over much of the waters west
of 40W, with gentle to moderate winds east of 40W. Seas are in the
6-8 ft range east of 60W, and 5-7 ft west of 60W.

For the forecast W of 55W, a high pressure ridge across the
western Atlantic will support fresh to strong winds between
Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos Islands through this evening. A
broad inverted trough, with axis currently near 56W/57W, will
shift westward through Sun, reaching the southeastern Bahamas.
This feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas
through the end of the week as it interacts with high pressure
north of the area. A low pressure center is forecast to develop
along a frontal boundary just offshore NE Florida early on Sun.
The low will move NE allowing a cold front to move southward
across Florida and the western Atlantic. This system will bring
strong to minimal gale- force northerly winds and a significant
swell event mainly across the waters N of 27N and W of 70W Sun
night into Mon.

$$
AL
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