[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Apr 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: the gradient between
subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is
supporting E-NE winds to gale force within 90 nm of the coastal
city of Barranquilla, Colombia. These winds will persist through
the night, decrease to strong Tue morning, and regenerate to
minimal gale force Tue night. Sea heights will range from 10 to 12
ft when the gales are active.

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event:

Seas of 8-12 ft in a northerly swell are observed across a large
portion of the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic.
Specifically, combined seas are greater than 8 ft south of a line
from 31N44W to 18N63W and north of a line from 12N60W to 13N45W to
23N20W to 31N18W. Wind are generally fresh from the ENE in this
area. These seas will gradually abate through Thu, however a trade
wind surge will keep seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlantic
through Sat.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal boarder of Liberia and
Sierra Leone near 07N11W to the equator at 35W. The ITCZ continues
to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the
equator to 05N, between 18W and 28W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate southerly flow dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 3
to 5 ft west of 87W and 1 to 3 ft east of 87W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at
night off the Yucatan Peninsula through Fri. High pressure and
fresh to strong return flow will develop across the W half of the
Gulf tonight through Wed, ahead of the next cold front. The front
is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed and stall across NW and W
portions, where it will meander through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale warning is in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia.
Please, read the Special Features section for more details.

Outside of the gale force winds, easterly winds are strong in the
Colombian Basin and fresh throughout the central Caribbean. Winds
are moderate elsewhere. Seas are currently 7 to 10 ft in the
south-central Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft elsewhere in the central and
eastern Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft in the NW Carribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between surface ridging
associated with strong high pressure centered SW of the Azores
Islands, and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to
near gale-force winds in the central and portions of the SW
Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia
will pulse to gale-force tonight and Tue night. Fresh to strong
winds are expected to pulse in the Windward Passage and in the
Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will
continue in the E Caribbean through the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the
ongoing significant swell event in the central and eastern
Atlantic.

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N60W to
26N74W. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of the
front from 25N to 29N, between 58W and 64W. Similar convection is
also observed within 90 nm of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Behind the
front, winds are moderate from the NE with 5 to 7 ft seas. Ahead
of the front, winds are gentle with 4 to 6 ft seas. West of 77W,
winds are gentle and seas are slight.

For the forecast, high pressure centered SW of the Azores Islands
extends W-SW to the Bahamas and continues to support moderate to
fresh E to SE winds S of 22N to the east of the approaches to the
Windward Passage. Winds and seas to 10 ft in this region will
diminish late Tue as Atlantic high pressure reorganizes N of the
area. A cold front extending from 31N57W to 26N74W will continue
to move SE and weaken through Tue. Moderate winds will prevail in
the vicinity of the front across the waters N of 28N through
tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Great Bahama
Bank and between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through Thu
evening. Looking ahead, a broad inverted trough is expected to
develop along about 55W Wed night and shift W through Fri. This
feature will enhance winds/seas E of the Bahamas through the end
of the week.

$$
Flynn
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